Key investment points
Last week (2.21-2.25), the stock index opened low, the Shanghai index fell 1.13% to close at 3451.4 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.35% to close at 1341292 points, the small and medium-sized 100 rose 0.25%, and the gem index rose 1.03%; In terms of industry sectors, electrical equipment, national defense and military industry and electronics led the increase; In terms of theme concepts, the rise of the continuous board index, the striking board index and the first board index ranked first; The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1060208 billion, with the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increasing by 25.82% over the previous week, including 26.19% in Shanghai stock market and 25.56% in Shenzhen stock market; In terms of style, small and medium-sized stocks have a comparative advantage, of which Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 2.76% and China Stock Exchange 500 fell 0.23%; In terms of exchange rate, the closing point of US dollar against RMB (CFETS) was 6.3142, down 0.19%; In terms of commodities, ice WTI crude oil rose 1.00%, Comex gold fell 0.51%, Nanhua iron ore index fell 0.66% and DCE coking coal fell 0.32%.
The market probability has bottomed out. The situation in Russia and Ukraine always stirs the nerves of the market. Last week, affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine, the A-share market was depressed first and then raised. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.13% and the gem index rose 1.03%. Compared with the peripheral European and American markets, the A-share market performed better because: (1) despite the war between Russia and Ukraine, China is not at the center of the contradiction. The overall interference of the war between Russia and Ukraine on China's capital market is limited, and the short decline is more emotional impact; (2) Previously, the A-share index has retreated greatly, and the market has certain expectations for the deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine; (3) the valuation bubble risk of A high valuation track sector is initially released, and the overall market valuation is not expensive. The war between Russia and Ukraine did not cause A-share market sentiment panic, which may reflect that the withdrawal range of this round of index has been in place. We maintain the judgment that "25 Xinjiang Haoyuan Natural Gas Co.Ltd(002700) points are the intensive trading area and strong support of the gem index". In the short term, there is no basis for A-share index to go down sharply.
The index center or concussion moves upward. However, the current market still faces four upward obstacles: (1) the Federal Reserve has a high probability of raising interest rates for the first time in March. At present, the event of raising interest rates is pending; (2) With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, A-Shares will face the performance test of the annual report and the first quarterly report from March to April; (3) Russia and Ukraine have gone to war, and the political situation is stuck, involving multiple interests and different demands of all parties. The war between Russia and Ukraine may trigger reflexive effects in global politics and capital markets, such as the escalation of the scale of the war, the escalation of sanctions and the shock of the financial market, so as to further suppress the market's willingness to do more; (4) Previously, the market retreated greatly, it will take time for the market sentiment to repair and new funds to continue to enter, so the reversal is difficult to be achieved overnight. The above four factors curb the market trend rebound from the aspects of valuation, performance, risk appetite and capital. Therefore, we expect that in the next 1-2 months, the A-share market may continue to maintain the shock trend, but the shock center of the market index will rise further. It is expected that the gem index will fluctuate repeatedly at 27 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) points. The period from March to April will be an important observation window for the A-share market. The above four negative factors will probably subside or ease significantly. At that time, the A-share market may usher in a trend reversal, especially the gem index and track sector that have retreated sharply before.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, the market environment is more complex, and investors should look for deterministic investment opportunities from uncertainty. In 2022, the A-share market is optimistic about the following four sectors in turn (in order): (1) dilemma reversal sector: epidemic reversal sector (aviation / Airport / hotel / Tourism / Cinema) The consumption sector with reversed cost dilemma (household appliances, food and beverage), and the pig breeding sector with reversed industrial cycle; (2) A sector with booming production and marketing. In the next 1-3 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer; (3) New energy and other track stocks. It is expected that the differentiation of new energy track stocks will intensify, the stocks with proven performance will still grow high, and the stocks with false performance will be corrected; (4) Downstream consumption sector. In November, China's PPI rose 12.9% year-on-year and CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year. The scissors gap is at an all-time high. It is expected that the convergence period of this round of ppi-cpi will continue from November 2021 to August 2022. The consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the first half of next year. We can pay attention to food, beverage and household appliances.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, recurrence of the epidemic, fluctuations in overseas markets, deterioration of China US relations and risks in emerging market countries.
