Overseas macro: the impact of swift sanctions on the global economy and market
On February 27th, swift announced that it would eliminate some of the financial institutions of western countries. We believe that the intensity of this sanctions has significantly increased, but there is still room for us to pay attention to the specific details of the subsequent sanctions, and still maintain our previous "neutral situation" judgment on the "Russia Ukraine conflict", that is, it is unlikely that this conflict will escalate into a regional war.
We expect that the sanctions may seriously affect Russia's foreign trade, especially energy trade, interfere with the normal order of Russia's financial system, affect the stability of the Russian Ruble currency, and weaken Russia's economic fundamentals in many ways.
However, as Russia is a major global energy exporter, under the influence of this event, the inflationary pressure in western countries, especially in the EU region, may continue to increase. In terms of medium and long-term impact, this event may accelerate the de dollarization process of other countries to a certain extent.
Overseas macro: the impact of swift sanctions on the global economy and market
Affected by risk aversion and panic, the global capital market may continue to fluctuate sharply in the short term.
It is expected that the Russian stock market and ruble may fluctuate sharply again; Major European stock indexes may be affected by sanctions and weaken in the short term; US stocks and US bonds may fluctuate slightly.
Commodity prices may remain high in the short term.
In terms of oil, it is expected that the oil distribution price may continue to rise and approach us $105110 / barrel. It is expected to maintain a high of about US $90 / barrel in the first half of the year and gradually fall after the reversal of supply and demand in the second half of the year.
In terms of precious metals, the risk aversion may cause the gold price to rise slightly and continue the high shock trend. After the market sentiment is digested, it may fall to US $1 Shanghai Construction Group Co.Ltd(600170) 0 / oz by the end of the year;
In terms of base metals, it is expected that the subsequent increase in international aluminum prices may be about 10%;
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) in terms of wheat prices, wheat prices may rise significantly, which may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the second and third quarters, and market concerns may be difficult to dissipate completely in a short time.
