Macro logic: it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in 2022 will show a "U-shaped" feature. In terms of sub items, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in real estate investment next year will show the characteristics of "low before high"; Exports continue to remain resilient, but facing the pressure of this year's high base, the year-on-year data is expected to show the characteristics of continuous decline; Infrastructure construction will be the most important underpinning force in the first quarter of next year. It is expected that the year-on-year data will show the characteristics of "high before low"; Disturbed by the epidemic and weak income expectations, consumption is difficult to rebound in the short term, and the year-on-year data are relatively stable. In conclusion, the economic month on month trend is relatively stable, and the year-on-year trend presents a wide U-shape of low between high and middle schools before and after, which will not form an upward force on a shares, and there is no systematic pressure. In December 2021, the central bank announced the RRR reduction, and it is expected that the liquidity environment will remain loose until the first half of next year. In terms of profitability, A-share enterprises will have structural differentiation driven by real profitability. Even in high boom industries, the real certainty of performance will also be differentiated. We are more optimistic about individual stock opportunities with more certainty in high boom sectors with strong expected profitability. In terms of style, it is suggested to focus on small and medium-sized stocks in the first half of 2022, and pay attention to the change of Valuation Structure in the performance cashing period in the second half of 2022.
View on asset allocation in 2022:
China A shares: mainly based on balanced allocation strategy. Subdivide the battery sector, photovoltaic field, intelligent field of new energy vehicles, etc; In the first half of the year, the consumer industry must pay attention to investment opportunities in the consumer field and avoid offline service consumption targets; Focus on the segmentation leaders with strong growth in the pharmaceutical field, export logic and valuation falling into a reasonable range; The real estate industry may have alpha income opportunities in the fourth quarter of 22. In addition, the expectation of military reform is strong. It is recommended to focus on the military industrial standards with the continuous improvement of profitability brought by the reform / scale effect of state-owned enterprises.
China's bond market: the bond bull market of interest rate bonds will gradually look at the industry sector: the high boom track of new energy green power sector continues, and the 22-year policy continues to catalyze. Focus on the upstream and midstream fields of new energy vehicles with strong discourse, such as lithium mine and entering the end. In terms of credit bonds, high-grade medium and long-term varieties are configured to carefully sink credit qualifications.
Hong Kong stocks: the valuation has been at a reasonably low valuation level, and the investment cost performance of Hong Kong stocks has gradually begun to highlight. In the past 22 years, we have focused on the leading targets of Hong Kong stocks in the Internet and the targets of Hong Kong stocks in the field of 18a biomedicine.
U.S. stocks: in the first half of 2022, there is little risk of systematic decline in U.S. stocks, focusing on the impact of the change of Omicron mutant strain or other new mutant strains on the U.S. economy, U.S. inflation expectations and the guidelines for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Gold: standard or reduced gold is recommended. Throughout the year, there are relatively few systematic upward opportunities. The rise of nominal US bond interest rate superimposed on the high inflation expectation gradually fell back, which is not conducive to gold investment.
Risk: the epidemic evolution exceeds expectations; US interest rate hike exceeded expectations; China's economic downturn exceeded expectations; The evolution of the international situation exceeded expectations.
