Investment summary:
Affected by the geographical conflict, A-Shares remained volatile in the last week of February, and finally recorded a slight decline on the Shanghai and Shenzhen main board and a slight rise on the gem index. The indexes with the largest increase during the week were Chuang growth, Kechuang 50, Kechuang entrepreneurship 50 and other indexes, and the indexes with the largest decrease were Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, China Stock Exchange 100, Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 and other indexes. In the past week, the rotation differentiation of industry sectors is obvious, and the hot spots are scattered. The biggest gains this week were in power equipment, defense industry and electronics, while the biggest declines were in building decoration, building materials and media. From the perspective of capital inflows, computer, social services, non bank finance and other industries mainly showed inflows this week. This week, the northward capital generally showed a net outflow, and the net purchase amount of foreign capital was -6.413 billion yuan.
Policy release: "Document No. 1" focuses on Rural Revitalization
In February 22, 2022, the No. 1 central document "steering the three rural issues" was issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on the key to promoting the revitalization of the countryside in 2022. The document includes eight aspects: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply, rural infrastructure construction and improving rural governance. (1) In terms of food security, the opinions put forward the following requirements:
In terms of grain, we should stabilize the sown area and output of grain throughout the year, adhere to the Chinese people's rice bowl and firmly put it in their own hands at any time, and ensure that the sown area of grain is stable and the output remains above 1.3 trillion kg.
In terms of soybeans and oil-bearing crops, it is required to vigorously implement the project to improve the production capacity of soybeans and oil-bearing crops, increase subsidies for cultivated land rotation and incentives for large oil producing counties, promote belt composite planting of corn and soybeans in some areas, carry out grain and soybean rotation, promote the pilot of water to upland rice and soybean, expand the planting of rape, and carry out the demonstration of planting soybeans in saline alkali land.
In terms of pig production capacity, stabilize the long-term support policies for pig production, stabilize the basic production capacity and prevent the ups and downs of production.
(2) in terms of agricultural modernization, the document requires to vigorously promote the tackling of key agricultural core technologies such as seed sources. We will fully implement the action plan for the revitalization of the seed industry. "Document No. 1" further emphasizes the importance of the revitalization of the seed industry on the basis of the legislation of the new seed law. The revitalization of the seed industry is changing from top-level design to comprehensive promotion. The newly revised seed law will come into force on March 1, 2022. The policy support of China's seed industry has gradually developed from top-level design to all-round promotion. At present, the main trend of seed industry is the gradual commercialization of genetically modified organisms.
Global macroeconomic data: high overseas inflation
The GDP growth rate of the United States in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 7%, in line with expectations, with a month on month increase of 204.3%. In January, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index was 5.21%, the previous value was 4.9%, the highest level since May 1983. In January, the EU CPI reported 5.6%, the previous value was 5.3%. In February, the EU eurozone manufacturing PMI reported 58.5, the previous value was 59.8, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%.
Investment suggestion: from the perspective of asset allocation, under the current geographical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the equity market may be impacted in the short term, the bond market yield is expected to decline slightly, and the commodity market pays attention to the investment opportunities of crude oil. In terms of sector allocation of A-share industry, the main line of macro policy in the first and second quarters is still "stable growth", and new and old infrastructure will continue to work. In terms of old infrastructure, attention is paid to urban pipe network construction and investment opportunities in cement sector, while new infrastructure focuses on digital economy sector. In addition, the "No. 1 document" has driven the prosperity of the seed industry sector upward, and the geographical conflict has led to the rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price. There is a high probability of reversal of the pig cycle during the year, so we pay attention to the opportunities of the agricultural sector throughout the year.
Risk tip: geopolitical risk
