There is no doubt that there will be a wide currency in 2022. In 2022, the fundamental pressure is still great, and the wide credit lacks effective financing demand support, so the loose monetary environment can be expected.
A-share liquidity increased by nearly trillion year-on-year, with the largest long-term capital increment. The overall increase is trillion yuan. The capital inflow of A-Shares in 2022 is 3.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.9-1.0 trillion yuan over 2021 and about 400 billion yuan less than 2020. The structure changes one after another. In 2022, the factors such as net worth rectification and decline in premium income that have a negative impact on financial management and insurance funds will be alleviated, and the incremental funds will turn negative into positive; The entry of public offering, private placement, retail investors and leveraged funds into the market slowed down as a whole; The trend of continuous net inflow of northbound funds is only exceptional in 2020, and will continue to flow in 2021.
Micro liquidity has a higher correlation with the trend of the stock market. Due to the existence of the transmission chain of "central bank bank entity stock market", there may be a deviation from the stock market and macro liquidity. Although the credit is weak in 2022 and the year-on-year growth rate of social finance is difficult to rise significantly, the micro liquidity of the stock market still increased year-on-year, helping the expansion of stock market valuation.
Under the background of Liquidity Expansion and more increase of institutional funds, PE has higher contribution and better value than growth. First, during the micro liquidity expansion, PE contributes more to the market growth, and the profit advantage is relatively weakened; Second, when institutional funds increase relatively, due to their own style preference, the value style is more dominant.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuations exceeded expectations, epidemic evolution exceeded expectations, and monetary policy was less than expected
