Exports remain resilient in the short term
Export growth fell and import growth rose. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in November 2021, the export was 22.0% year-on-year, the former value was 27.1%, the import was 31.7% year-on-year, the former value was 20.6%, and the trade surplus was 71.71 billion US dollars, the former value was 84.54 billion US dollars.
Exports remain strong. In November, the export volume continued to reach a record high of 325.53 billion US dollars, and the growth rate decreased compared with the previous month. Mainly because the base in the same period last year increased by about 30 billion US dollars compared with October, the export growth rate decreased, but the overall toughness still exists. It may also be related to the short-term increase in demand for overseas Christmas goods preparation, and the prosperity of foreign demand is still strong.
The export growth of integrated circuits and other products remained high. Among the main export products, high-tech products, electromechanical products, clothing, integrated circuits, household appliances, textile yarn, etc., with a growth rate of more than double digits, especially integrated circuits, reached 37.34%.
The import amount hit a record high. In November, the import amount was 253.81 billion yuan, which continued to hit a record high as the export. The import growth rate of upstream raw materials, midstream industrial products and main grains increased compared with October. Although the growth rate of import volume of crude oil, unwrought copper, copper products and soybeans is still negative, they all narrowed last month, and iron ore changed from negative to positive, which has made a certain contribution to the growth rate of import volume. The reason behind this may be that maintaining supply and price stability has increased the import of upstream energy products. The import volume of coal and lignite in the current month exceeded 35 million tons, nearly 200% year-on-year, and the import amount was US $5.87 billion, more than 700% year-on-year.
On the whole, the overseas demand in Christmas season is still strong, there is still support for exports in the short term, and the impact of the subsequent Omicron virus on the global supply chain is still uncertain. From the deployment of the Politburo meeting of the central bank, it will respond to the decline of external demand by stimulating domestic demand next year. Policies to promote consumption and new infrastructure investment are worth looking forward to.
The central bank cut the interest rate of re lending for agriculture and small loans
On December 7, the central bank updated the interest rate table of refinancing and rediscount on its official website. Among them, the three-month, six-month and one-year interest rates of agricultural and small refinancing were reduced by 0.25 percentage points, and the reduced interest rates were 1.7%, 1.9% and 2.0% respectively.
Last year, the central bank twice lowered the interest rate of refinancing for agriculture and small loans, and a total of 50 BP was lowered. The central bank’s re lending rate adjustment the day after the announcement of the RRR reduction reflects the precise irrigation and flexibility of monetary policy. By reducing the debt cost of small and medium-sized banks, it can accurately reduce the financing cost of small and micro enterprises and alleviate the operating pressure of small and micro enterprises. From the setting tone of the Politburo meeting, the direction of monetary policy is relatively clear.
The financing balance decreased. On December 6, the balance of A-share financing was 1722.564 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 545 million yuan; The balance of margin trading was 1841.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.466 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1603.429 billion yuan, an increase of 1.377 billion yuan month on month.
Net inflow of land stock connect and Hong Kong stock connect. On December 7, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was 7.949 billion yuan, including 66.740 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 58.790 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 1569.174 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $3.166 billion on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $16.721 billion and a sale transaction of HK $13.556 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2148168 billion.
