Market review: the contraction of the two cities soared, and the northward funds reappeared a substantial net purchase
Today, the two markets continued to rise after opening. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 1.18% to 3637.57 and the Shenzhen index rose 1.82% to 14697.17. In terms of sectors, food and beverage, electronics, national defense and military industry led the increase, while building materials, building decoration and real estate led the decline. The turnover of the two cities was 1101.51 billion yuan, a contraction of 8.19% over the previous trading day and 5.67% over the average value of the previous five days. The net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect was 3.789 billion yuan, the net purchase of Shenzhen Stock connect was 5.896 billion yuan, and the net purchase of northbound funds was 9.685 billion yuan again.
Market focus:
According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on December 7, in November 2021, China’s total import and export reached US $579.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%. Among them, the export was 325.53 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%, and the import was 253.81 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%. In addition, the people’s Bank of China issued an announcement and decided to reduce the refinancing interest rate for agriculture and small loans by 0.25 percentage points from December 7. After this reduction, the three-month, six-month and one-year refinancing rates for agriculture and small loans were 1.7%, 1.9% and 2% respectively.
Strategy suggestion: pay attention to the consumption sector and high boom growth track
Today, the A-share market performed strongly all day. After the opening of the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes, they continued to rise. The indexes were red across the board. Individual stocks rose more and fell less, with a rise / fall ratio of 3236:1114. The market turnover contracted, but remained above 1.1 trillion yuan. There was a significant net inflow of northward funds again, and the financial and daily consumption sectors were favored. Building materials, building decoration, real estate and other sectors that have been built in recent days have been slightly rebusted today, and Baijiu, new energy vehicles and semiconductors have been built, or are mainly driven by continuous fermentation of loose expectations.
After entering the high base stage in the fourth quarter, China’s exports continued to achieve higher than expected growth. In addition to its own tenacity support, seasonal factors can not be ignored, including accelerating exports before the Spring Festival, centralized preparation for European and American festivals, seasonal decline in shipping prices, etc. at the same time, excluding the factors of price rise, it can be found that the export boom has actually shown signs of decline. Although the export growth rate remained high in November, we still believe that the pulling effect of exports on the economy will be relatively limited in 2022. It is difficult to rely on exports again to effectively alleviate the downward pressure on the economy. At the macro level, the regulation and control to ensure the steady growth of economic aggregate may become stronger.
In addition, after the implementation of the comprehensive RRR reduction, the central bank successively announced the reduction of small expenditure and agricultural refinancing interest rates, which verified our previous view that “after the RRR reduction, we may successively introduce more active fiscal policy and structural monetary policy”. The targeted interest rate reduction policy of reducing the interest rates of small and agricultural re loans is different from the comprehensive interest rate reduction, with more emphasis on “precision and direct” to help the real economy. At present, the policy is broad and loose, and the tone is relatively clear. The first and second quarter of next year may be a better window period. The liquidity support of A-Shares is strong, and the probability at the meso level will continue the idea of early structural adjustment. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of high boom growth track. At the same time, under the regulation of counter cyclical steady growth, the winning rate of consumer and financial sectors is relatively high. It is suggested to tap high-quality targets with more attractive valuation.
