Suggestions on asset allocation: the growth is good and the interest rate is increased, and the stock market and bulk commodities still have excess value
The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is weakening, the U.S. economy remains strong, China's economy has a "good start" in the first quarter, and the economic recovery is superimposed on the rise of interest rates. It is suggested to allocate more stocks and commodities and less bonds.
Stock index: global stock markets regain support. ① The external risks of China's stock market are gradually released, the economy bottoms well, supports the stock market upward, and can gradually tilt to growth under balanced allocation. ② The impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict is weakening, the upward risk of US bond yields has been released, and US stocks are expected to rebound, but the landing of interest rate hikes in mid March restricts the rebound.
Bonds: when the interest rate rises, it is suggested to reduce the allocation. China's economic recovery is expected to heat up, and the market has priced the follow-up monetary policy. In March, the long-term interest rate of China's bond market continued to rise, and the short-term interest rate is expected to enter shock. US inflation data hit a 40 year high. In March, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. The market is expected to accelerate the pace of table contraction, and the long and short ends of US bonds are expected to continue to rise.
Bulk commodities are suggested to be over allocated with crude oil and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) . Under the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia and the unstable situation in Ukraine, the supply of relevant export commodities from Russia and Ukraine may be disturbed. The supply and price stabilization policy of the China Development and Reform Commission is overweight, and the real estate chain continues its downward trend, which has a certain inhibition on the demand for glass and rebar in China. On the whole, it is suggested to focus on the investment opportunities of Russia Ukraine supply disturbance varieties, namely crude oil and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) .
The US dollar remained strong and the RMB weakened slightly. According to the resumption of the price trend of major commodities before and after previous wars, the US dollar regained support after the war situation became clear. It is expected that the US dollar will strengthen and the RMB will weaken slightly.
Configuration logic: the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is weakening, and the Federal Reserve is expected to accelerate interest rate hike without change
The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has weakened, and the global risk appetite has significantly warmed up. Both the United States and Europe stated that they would not provide military assistance to Ukraine, but only provide arms sales and humanitarian assistance. Under the huge gap of military strength between Russia and Ukraine, the war situation has become clear, which promoted the significant recovery of global risk appetite. On February 24 and 25, the price of gold and crude oil quickly fell back to the pre war level after rising, indicating that the risk appetite has significantly recovered. The decline in the number of covid-19 diagnoses worldwide also contributed to the recovery of risk appetite.
The first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve has been basically determined in March, and the expected range is about 50bp. The key factor restricting the Fed's interest rate increase of 50bp is the weakening impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Countries do not respond positively to the release of oil strategic reserves. The problem of inflation is still difficult to alleviate. For the time being, there are no other factors that can enable the fed to adjust the rate increase.
China's recovery continued, with a "good start" in the first quarter. The recovery of consumption has a strong endogenous driving force. After the Spring Festival, work will resume in an orderly manner, and the good trend of industrial production will remain unchanged. Infrastructure construction has made efforts to hedge the decline of real estate. Commercial housing sales are still weak, but the margin has improved. There are signs of stabilization at the investment end in February. As long as the macro data provide further evidence, the GDP growth rate is probably stronger than that in the fourth quarter of last year.
Risk tips
There are deviations in the prediction of economic recovery of various countries; China's foreign policy tightening exceeded expectations; Sino US relations deteriorated beyond expectations; Covid-19 epidemic situation exceeded the expected development, etc.
