The average rise and fall of our top ten targets in February of 22 years was 1.45%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.06%.
Looking forward to March, we believe that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March, the progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the release of China's economic data from January to February will become key factors affecting the trend of the A-share market; In the atmosphere of many uncertain factors, more balanced allocation or the best response method. Specifically:
I. impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine: (I) in the short term, whether it is for the global equity market or China's A-share market, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to the rise of risk aversion and the increase of fluctuation of risk assets, which will also affect A-shares. At present, the Russian Ukrainian crisis is still fermenting, and the two sides of the conflict and the stakeholders behind it are still playing games. In the short term, the state of high volatility in the capital market may still be maintained, and the tail risk cannot be completely ruled out. (II) in the medium term, the changes of regional political situation in history have a greater impact on the medium term. If the relevant economies fall into recession after the conflict, the stock market will also enter a downward trend. The Russian Ukrainian conflict may lead to the rise of global oil, natural gas, wheat and other prices, and have a negative impact on the European economy. For the United States, one of the effective means to control inflation is to tighten liquidity and raise interest rates. However, with the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we should also consider the dual pressure of the conflict and interest rate hike on the economy. The hesitation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates may lead to new expectations in the capital market.
II. High inflation in the United States and the expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table brought about by high inflation will still affect the market risk appetite.
(I) the CPI of the United States increased by 7.5% year-on-year in January 22, which was the same as that during the second oil crisis in 1982, but the interest rate was much lower than that at that time. Market expectations for the fed to raise interest rates during the year are rising. But at the same time, the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also increased market tension. The prices of oil and other resources and food have continued to rise, which has stimulated US inflation. (II) raising interest rates will affect US economic growth, and the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma. We believe that the market's expectation of raising interest rates may affect investors' attitude towards growth stocks and value stocks.
III. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the severe sanctions imposed on Russia by the western world have seriously impacted the supply chain of global bulk commodities. The prices of bulk commodities, especially crude oil, aluminum and some Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) jumped, and the pressure of imported inflation in China increased. Under the current background of downward pressure on China's economy and the need for countercyclical policy adjustment, the main constraint of the steady growth policy comes from inflation. If the imported inflation pressure increases, the space for China's policy regulation will be limited to a certain extent, which will also inhibit the valuation of China's a shares.
Therefore, looking forward to the A-share allocation in March, we believe that a more balanced allocation is needed to deal with many uncertainties outside China. Specifically: first, the reversal industry under low expectation and new theme investment are still important allocation directions: on the one hand, although the market is skeptical about the strength of steady growth, it can not be verified, and we believe that there is pressure on the overall macro-economy in the first half of 22 years, so the "steady growth" policy is still necessary. At present, the relevant sectors fall synchronously with the index, There are allocation opportunities, focusing on the direction of power and real estate industry chain. In addition, although the uncertainty of the epidemic situation may still disturb the recovery rhythm of catering, tourism, transportation and other industries, with the liberalization of overseas epidemic control and the further scientific prevention and control of the global epidemic, the "post epidemic" industry is expected to gradually achieve the expected repair or even reverse. On the other hand, new thematic investments are still actively emerging: for example, digital economy, automotive intelligence, state-owned enterprise reform and other directions. 2、 Since the beginning of the year, the valuation of the semiconductor, pharmaceutical science and technology sectors with strong long-term policy certainty, large industrial space and accelerated domestic substitution, as well as military industry, new energy vehicles and other sectors has been adjusted to a certain extent. In particular, the valuation cost performance of some leading companies and representative companies has begun to show, which is worthy of key configuration. Focus on photovoltaic, energy storage industry chain, lithium ore, semiconductor and other directions. 3、 Energy, upstream resource products and other sectors are still expected to benefit from the increased expectation of global inflation in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention.
In the march of 22 years, the focus of attention in the march of the year of the 22 years and the focus of attention in the march of the 22 years of the 22 years of the 22 years of the 22 years of the 22 years of the 22 years of the 22 years, and the targets are: China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) 17171717\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ ( Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) , buy), satellite Chemistry ( Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) , buy), Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) ( Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) , buy) Goertek Inc(002241) ( Goertek Inc(002241) , buy)
Risk tips
1. The macroeconomic downturn exceeded expectations; 2、 The global epidemic broke out more than expected again; 3、 The promotion of the "steady growth" policy was less than expected
