Strategy · one week capital level and market sentiment monitoring: fund issuance remained stable and continued a substantial net inflow northward

The main conclusions of this week’s liquidity weekly report are as follows:

The central bank reduced its investment in reverse repo, and the capital interest rate rose slightly: last week, the central bank operated 230 billion yuan of reverse repo, 400 billion yuan of reverse repo expired, and 200 billion yuan of MLF returned; Last week, the central bank’s reverse repurchase operation was 400 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase expired by 210 billion yuan. There was no MLF / tmlf release or MLF / tmlf expiration. Shibor (three months) closed at 2.499% last week, up 1.50bp from the previous week; Interbank lending closed at 1.95% / 2.32% last week (1 day / 7 days), with a change of 20 / – 11bp respectively compared with the previous week; The inter-bank pledged repo rate (1 day / 7 days) closed at 1.95% / 2.16% last week, with a change of 20 / – 28bp compared with the previous week; the maturity yield of AAA + interbank certificate of deposit closed at 1.98% / 2.50% / 2.60% last week (1 month / 3 months / 6 months), with a change of – 19 / – 1 / – 2bp compared with the previous week. Last week, the yield to maturity of treasury bonds (3 years / 5 years / 10 years) closed at 2.25% / 2.72% / 2.87%, a change of -1.22/3.94/0.42bp respectively compared with last week. Last week, the yield to maturity of 3A corporate bonds (1 year / 5 years / 7 years) was 3.06% / 3.40% / 3.60%, a change of 0.13/1.68/0bp compared with last week. Last week, the yield on maturity of medium and short-term notes (1 year / 3 years / 5 years) closed at 2.78% / 3.06% / 3.95%, a change of -0.71/0.16/1.52bp respectively compared with the previous week.

Last week, a total of 6 companies were listed on the IPO market, and the overall rhythm of fund issuance was stable: last week, a total of 6 A-share companies were listed on the IPO market, including 1 on the main board, 2 on the gem and 3 on the science and innovation board, with a fund-raising scale of 6.603 billion yuan; Last week, a total of 7 A-share companies went public through IPO, with a fund-raising scale of 8.04 billion yuan. Based on the establishment date, a total of 15 common stock + partial stock / balanced hybrid + flexible allocation funds were issued last week, totaling 11.853 billion; The share issued last week was 18.044 billion.

The net reduction of industrial capital was 14.01 billion yuan and the net inflow of funds going north was 15.12 billion yuan: last week, the industrial capital increased by 1.319 billion yuan, decreased by 15.329 billion yuan and decreased by 14.010 billion yuan; Last week, industrial capital increased by 840 million yuan, decreased by 17.878 billion yuan, and decreased by 17.038 billion yuan. Last week, a total of 15.117 billion yuan flowed into Beijing and Shanghai, including 11.57 billion yuan from Shanghai Stock connect and 3.547 billion yuan from Shenzhen Stock connect; The funds flowing southward totaled 6.732 billion, including 2.908 billion from Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect and 3.824 billion from Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect. Last week, a total of 5.71 billion yuan of funds flowed from the north to the south, including 2.969 billion yuan from the Shanghai Stock connect and 8.679 billion yuan from the Shenzhen Stock connect; The funds flowing southward totaled 242 million, including 372 million from Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect and 614 million from Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect.

In terms of market activity: as of December 3, the balance of margin trading was 1844.172 billion, accounting for 2.51% of the circulating market value of a shares; As of November 26, the balance of margin trading was 1849.288 billion, accounting for 2.55% of the circulating market value of a shares. Last week, the transaction volume of a was 5.77 trillion, with a daily average of 1154.52 billion. As of December 3, the financing purchase accounted for 7.3%; Last week, the transaction volume of a was 5.83 trillion, with a daily average of 1166.056 billion. As of November 26, the financing purchase accounted for 7.7%.

Other indicators we focus on: as of December 6, the scale of equity financing in December was 41.741 billion yuan, including 11.187 billion yuan for the first time and 16.229 billion yuan for additional issuance; In November, the scale of equity financing was 259.319 billion yuan, including initial issuance of 39.589 billion yuan and additional issuance of 1996.02 billion yuan. In December, 2 M & A plans were listed (2 passed and 0 failed), with a pass rate of 100%; in November, 4 M & A plans were listed (3 passed and 1 failed), with a pass rate of 75%.

Risk tip: monetary policy tightening, macroeconomic downside risk and overseas uncertainty escalation; This report is for market condition monitoring and does not constitute investment suggestions.

 

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