The war between Russia and Ukraine has aroused great global attention and shocked the global capital market. Since the impact of war on the capital market is not uncommon, Chinese and foreign institutions have quickly made corresponding research and given a general conclusion. The core point is that the impact of war on the capital market is mainly in the short term and does not change the medium and long-term trend. A simple corollary is that once the war starts, the decline of the stock market is an opportunity to copy the bottom.
The capital market is really smart. It will analyze and respond to different scenarios. It will not mechanically apply the previous laws, but is very flexible. Therefore, for some general laws, we need to analyze specific problems to avoid cutting corners.
We need to do some in-depth research on the underlying laws of the war, but we really need to improve the winning rate of the current capital. We classify Table 1 and other wars, and then analyze the impact of the Russian Ukrainian war on the capital market.
Based on our analysis and mainly based on the strength comparison of all parties, the situation between Russia and Ukraine is probably a large Crimean crisis, and a small probability will lead to further escalation of war or black swan of soaring oil prices. In addition, from the time point of view, the market reaction time of most wars is about less than one week, or more complex, less than two or three weeks, unless there are black swans. Therefore, it is suggested to gradually increase the position and copy the bottom this week. If there is further decline, you can increase the position as appropriate.
Risk tip: the Russian Ukrainian war exceeded expectations
