research conclusion
Looking forward to 2022, key variables outside China will have different effects on a shares. Globally: (1) the foreign economy recovers slowly, but the epidemic situation still repeats, and the global fiscal and monetary policy will not withdraw too quickly. (2) the US inflation is high, and the expectation of raising interest rates in advance after the FRB accelerates taper is rising. (3) if the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds continues to rise, it will put some pressure on A-share growth stocks; in China: (1) It is expected that the economy will be low before and stable after next year, and the annual GDP growth rate will be about 5-5.5%, which is under great pressure in the first half of the year. PPI will continue to decline, CPI will strengthen at a low level, and may exceed 3% in the second half of the year. (2) science and technology, carbon neutralization and common prosperity policies will continue to make efforts to point out the direction of structural adjustment, and China's monetary policy is relatively stable. (3) The three red lines of real estate and the pilot of real estate tax clearly define the medium and long-term real estate policy trend; the sum of the allocation proportion of equity assets and public funds by bank financial management is only 6.66%, the low allocation proportion of the stock market and the pursuit of high-quality assets under net worth management have a strong driving force for the long-term continuous inflow of funds into the stock market.
Research and judgment on the general trend of A-share market in 2022: on the one hand, we maintain the judgment tone of structural opportunities. On the other hand, while balancing the growth and value allocation, we should pay attention to the market rhythm: there are phased opportunities for growth and value in the first half of next year, but growth stocks are relatively dominant under the catalysis of the recovery of liquidity and policies in science and technology, double carbon and consumption; In the second half of the year, factors such as the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates and the gradual rise of China's inflation level are relatively friendly to value stocks.
2022 A-share market profitability, liquidity Valuation Outlook: (1) in terms of profitability, A-Shares will return to the profit cycle of "low growth rate and low volatility" in 22 years. Under the optimistic / neutral / pessimistic assumption, we predict that the growth rate of parent net profit of A-Shares (non-financial and two oil) in 22 years will be 8.06% / 4.49% / - 0.26% (ROE of the same caliber and TTM optimistic / neutral / pessimistic assumption are 9.1%, 8.8% and 8.4% respectively). (2) In terms of capital supply, A-Shares will benefit from: the overall net worth and institutionalization of bank financial management and the expectation of continuous inflow of foreign capital; in terms of capital demand, the pressure of lifting the ban in 22 years will decline, while primary and secondary financing such as IPO and fixed growth will rise steadily; (3) The valuation differentiation of A-Shares is obvious: the valuation of leading and scientific and technological growth is above the historical 70th percentile, and the valuation of cyclical finance and small and medium market value is below 50. Next year, the growth rate of all A-Shares will fluctuate at a low speed and in a narrow range. There is no basis for significantly improving the valuation, and the differentiation may continue.
Prospect of A-share allocation in 2022: the core logic is to buy industries and companies with long-term high roe and stable EPS growth, with balanced growth and value. From the perspective of industry allocation, along the change rhythm and policy direction of CPI in 2022, we give three keywords of industry allocation in 22 years: "scientific and technological power", "consumption recovery" and "double carbon strategy". Among them: scientific and technological power: 1) semiconductor; 2) Automotive Electric Intelligence (power semiconductor, connector, autopilot and intelligent cockpit); 3) AR / VR hardware; 4) new materials (new military materials, new energy materials, electronic and semiconductor materials and new chemical materials; 5) pharmaceutical and medical devices; 6) advanced equipment (consumer machinery, inspection and testing equipment); 7) national defense and military industry sector. Consumption recovery: Agriculture (pig, animal protection, seed industry), food and beverage and mass consumer goods are required (Baijiu, beer, dairy products, compound condiments, baking and raw materials, meat products, snack foods). The second half of the year can focus on the optional consumption under the economic recovery, including automobile and auto parts, light industrial furniture (kitchen and small electricity, clean appliances) and social service (tax exemption). (integrated components, adhesive film and inverter), wind power industry chain (casting + spindle, bearing and submarine cable), energy storage industry chain (energy storage battery and inverter) and new energy vehicle industry chain (anode and cathode materials, diaphragm, electrolyte, power battery and automotive semiconductor).
Risk tips: first, the epidemic prevention and control was lower than expected, and the global epidemic again exceeded expectations. 2、 The policy promotion was less than expected, affecting the logic of relevant industries. 3、 The macro recovery was less than expected, affecting the recovery of the consumer sector. 4、 The Fed raised interest rates in advance, or increased the risk of A-Shares in the first half of 22 years. 5、 Growth styles such as gem and the valuation quantile of leading companies are at a high level, with high fluctuation risk. 6、 Changes in assumptions affect the calculation results.
