In November, JPMorgan’s global manufacturing PMI was 54.2, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value and up 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year. From the five sub items, one rose and four fell, of which the output index was 52.60%, up 1.10 percentage points from the previous value and – 2.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The input price, output price, new orders and employment index were 71.50%, 61.30%, 53.30% and 51.40% respectively, down 2.90, 2.40, 0.40 and 0.40 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value, and 14.00, 8.10, – 1.80 and 1.30 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year. In the week of November 27, the commercial retail sales of red book in the United States hit a record high year-on-year. The annual growth rate of ECRI leading indicators rebounded slightly in the week of November 26. In October, all new manufacturing orders fell year-on-year. In November, ISM manufacturing PMI rose slightly, and ISM non manufacturing PMI hit a record high. The Dallas manufacturing index rebounded sharply, and the high business climate PMI in Chicago fell sharply. On the whole, the demand of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries is strong. In October, the number of years of construction expenditure continued to decline year-on-year. The MBA purchase index rebounded in the week of November 26. The number of initial jobless claims rebounded slightly in the week of November 27. In November, the unemployment rate continued to decline and the labor participation rate rose. ADP private new employment fell sharply, and new private non-agricultural employment fell. The unemployment rate improved marginally, but the number of new jobs in various industries decreased compared with the previous value, and the average weekly working hours of all employees of private Non-agricultural enterprises increased. The number of layoffs in Challenger enterprises decreased slightly. The total number of drilling rigs in the week of December 3 was weak. In Canada, GDP fell sharply year-on-year in the third quarter, the labor productivity index rebounded sharply year-on-year, and the current account balance fell sharply. In October, the raw material price index rmpi rebounded sharply year-on-year, and the industrial product price index IPPI continued to rise year-on-year. Construction permits rebounded sharply year-on-year. In November, the unemployment rate fell and the number of employed rose. In Brazil, GDP fell from a year-on-year high in the third quarter.
The euro zone economic climate index fell slightly in November. From the four sub items, there were three increases and one decrease, of which the retail confidence, construction confidence and service industry confidence indexes were 3.70, 9.00 and 18.40 respectively, up 1.80, 0.40 and 0.40 respectively compared with the previous value, and changed by 16.40, 18.00 and 35.40 respectively compared with the same period last year. The industrial confidence index was 14.10, down 0.10 from the previous value and 24.30 from the same period last year. Retail sales fell year-on-year in October. In November, CPI hit another record high year-on-year. In October, PPI hit another record high year-on-year. The unemployment rate continued to decline. In Germany, retail sales in October changed from positive to negative year-on-year. The GfK consumer confidence index fell in December. In November, CPI hit a year-on-year high since July 1992. The registered unemployment rate stabilized downward. In France, the economic climate index rebounded in November. In October, the industrial production index changed from positive to negative year-on-year. The manufacturing index changed from negative to positive year-on-year, and the transportation equipment manufacturing industry was the main contributor. Construction output continued to rebound year-on-year, and household consumption expenditure changed from positive to negative year-on-year. In November, CPI hit a year-on-year high since October 2008. In October, PPI hit another record high year-on-year. In the UK, M1 and M2 fell year-on-year in October, while m3 and M4 rose year-on-year. In Russia, manufacturing PMI rose slightly in November. The unemployment rate remained low in October.
Japan’s household consumer confidence index rose weakly in November. Manufacturing PMI rose to a new high since February 2018. In October, the retail sales of Commerce changed from negative to positive year-on-year. In terms of eight sub items, the retail sales of fuel, machinery and equipment, other retail sales, retail sales of general commodities, retail sales of food and beverage and retail sales of drugs and bath products were 25.90%, 2.20%, 0.40%, 0.50%, 3.70% and 1.70% respectively, Compared with the previous values, it increased by 9.30, 6.40, 4.00, 3.60, 1.40 and 0.30 percentage points respectively. The retail sales of automobiles and fabrics, clothing and accessories were – 19.50% and – 2.00% respectively year-on-year, down 6.90 and 4.30 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value. The industrial production index continued to fall year-on-year and passively replenished inventory. In November, the base currency continued to decline year-on-year. The unemployment rate fell in October. In South Korea, the trade balance rebounded in November, and foreign demand was stronger than domestic demand. In October, the industrial production index changed from positive to negative year-on-year. In November, manufacturing PMI returned to above the boom and bust line. Year on year CPI and core CPI were up and down year on year. In Australia, GDP fell from a year-on-year high in the third quarter, and corporate inventories rose and fell year-on-year. PMI rebounded in November and took the initiative to replenish inventory. The performance index of the construction industry is weak. In October, the construction permit changed from positive to negative year-on-year. The balance of trade in goods and services continued to fall, and domestic and foreign demand was weak.
