Guangdong is located in the south of China. Its pillar industries include the new generation of electronic information industry, green petrochemical industry, smart home appliance industry, automobile industry, advanced material industry, etc. In 2020, the GDP of Guangdong Province was 11.1 trillion, ranking the first in China. In recent years, the economic growth rate has closely followed the national average. Gdp88210 per capita in 2020 0 yuan, ranking seventh in the country, equivalent to 122.5% of the country. In the “three two one” industrial structure, the proportion of the tertiary industry has increased year by year, and the proportion of wholesale and retail and real estate in the tertiary industry is relatively high.
Guangdong’s financial self-sufficiency rate is at the upper level of the country. In 2020, the general public budget revenue of Guangdong Province was 1292.2 billion yuan, accounting for 76.5%, the government fund revenue was 864.24 billion yuan, an increase of 41.3% year-on-year, and the financial self-sufficiency rate was 74.1%, ranking third in China. By the end of 2020, the debt balance of local governments in Guangdong was RMB 1531.75 billion, and the debt ratio (government debt balance / GDP, excluding hidden debt) was 13.8%, ranking the 30th in China; the narrow caliber debt ratio (government debt balance / general public budget revenue, excluding hidden debt) was 118.5%, ranking the 28th in China.
Guangdong Province has actively prevented the risk of government debt and resolutely curbed the new implicit debt. The executive meeting of the provincial government held on October 9, 2021 stressed that the Guangdong provincial Party committee and the provincial government always take preventing and resolving the hidden debt risk as an important political task, resolutely curb the increment and accelerate the resolution of the stock. At present, the government debt is generally safe and the risk is controllable. With the approval of the State Council, Guangdong Province officially launched the pilot work of no hidden debt in the whole region, comprehensively cleaned up the stock of hidden debt according to law and regulations, and ensured the completion of the pilot task on schedule.
The economic differentiation in Guangdong Province is obvious, and the economic volume of Guangzhou and Shenzhen is significantly ahead of other cities. (1) Shenzhen’s GDP in 2020 was 2767.02 billion yuan, ranking first in the province. Guangzhou’s GDP in 2020 was 2501.91 billion yuan, second only to Shenzhen; Foshan and Dongguan were relatively strong, about trillion yuan. The GDP of other cities was less than 500 billion yuan. (2) There are differences in GDP growth. Shanwei, Yangjiang and Yunfu have a large growth rate of more than 4%; Shenzhen, Shaoguan, Zhuhai and Zhaoqing have a growth rate of 3% – 4%, Jieyang has a low growth rate of only 0.2%, and other cities have a growth rate of 1% – 3%. (3) There is a large gap in per capita GDP. In 2020, the per capita GDP of Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Guangzhou and Foshan was more than 100000 yuan, leading other cities; Heyuan, Jieyang and Meizhou were relatively low, all less than 40000 yuan.
There is a big gap in financial strength among cities at all levels in Guangdong Province, and the financial self-sufficiency rate is differentiated. Shenzhen and Guangzhou have strong comprehensive financial resources, with 543.77 billion yuan and 478.08 billion yuan respectively, ranking the top two in the province. The financial self-sufficiency rate of Shenzhen is relatively high, 92.3%, followed by Dongguan, 82.7%. Among the other prefecture level cities, 6 cities have a financial self-sufficiency rate of more than 50%. From the perspective of debt ratio, the debt ratios of Meizhou and Heyuan are high, 32.9% and 30.1% respectively. The debt ratios of Shanwei, Qingyuan, Shaoguan, Yunfu and Zhaoqing are greater than 20%. Dongguan and Shenzhen are the lowest, 8.9% and 3.2% respectively. Other cities are between 10% – 20%.
There are 88 urban investment bond issuers in Guangdong Province, with a balance of 572.74 billion yuan. Among them, the provincial capital Guangzhou has the largest number of bond issuers, with 24. As of December 3, 2021, the main bodies with high amount of existing debt in Guangdong mainly include Shenzhen Metro, Guangzhou Metro, HUAFA group, talent housing and guangjiaotou, with the scale of existing debt of 109.7 billion yuan, 100.96 billion yuan, 53.7 billion yuan, 21.5 billion yuan and 20.7 billion yuan respectively. In terms of rating distribution, there are 32 AAA platforms in Guangdong, accounting for 36.4%; AA +, AA and AA platforms account for 21.6%, 35.2% and 4.5% respectively. The whole year of 2022 and 2023h2 to 2024h1 are the maturity peaks of Guangdong urban investment, and the maturity amount accounts for 27.5% and 31.8% of the stock respectively.
Risk tips: the adjustment of urban investment and financing policies exceeded expectations, and the macro-economy exceeded expectations
