abstract
IC insights released its outlook for 2022: the global semiconductor industry continues to maintain high prosperity expectations
IC insights discusses the world and regional GDP environment and compares it with the semiconductor market environment. Overall, in 2021, the growth rate of global IC market reached 24%, significantly exceeding the growth rate of global GDP by 5%, showing strong resilience. In the past 30 years, only in 1996-1998, 2001, 2008, 2011-2012 and 2019, there has been a significant trough in the semiconductor industry. Other nodes show that the growth rate of IC market is faster than that of GDP as a whole.
Overall, the top three semiconductor manufacturers have changed significantly. Samsung has replaced Intel as the first, with TSMC, Hynix and micron ranking 3-5 respectively. 6-10 are Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Broadcom, MediaTek and Texas Instruments. The global top 5 semiconductor manufacturers account for an increasing share of total capital support, and the characteristics of oligopoly pattern are becoming more and more obvious. There is an upward cycle of capital expenditure every 8 years, followed by a 2-3-year downward cycle. At present, it is in the seventh year of the upward cycle starting in 2016.
Including the annual compound growth forecast for each IC product category in the next five years. In terms of micro components, the annual growth rate was 6.7%; The compound annual growth rate of the entire IC market is 10.2%, and that of the storage market is 10.8%. The annual compound growth rate of MOS logic market is 11.7%, and the annual growth rate of analog market is 11.8%. It is estimated that in 2022, the MOS memory market will reach US $188.3 billion, of which DRAM accounts for 57% and flash accounts for 42%. In terms of MOS storage units, the global scale is expected to reach 56.6 billion US dollars in 2022. DRAM accounts for 43%, flash 40% and EEPROM / ROM / EPROM / others 17%.
It is estimated that the global demand for NAND in 2022 will mainly be mobile phones accounting for 40%, SSDs (customers and enterprises) accounting for 33%, memory cards accounting for 13% and tablets accounting for 8%.
It is estimated that in 2022, DRAM with DDR4 and above will account for 92%, taking the absolute leading position, while DDR3 will maintain a weak 8% share and continue to decrease. The overall scale of MOS micro component market in 2022 is expected to be US $134.7 billion, of which computer CPU accounts for 37%, mobile phone appmpu accounts for 29%, embedded CPU accounts for 16%, 32 bit MCU accounts for 10%, and 16 bit MCU accounts for 3%.
Among microcontrollers, 32-bit has the largest increase, from US $5.7 billion in 2010 to US $14.4 billion in 2022, accounting for an absolute proportion. In terms of microprocessors, it is currently estimated that the global sales volume of MPU will reach 110 billion US dollars in 2022, × 86Std. Computer servers and hosts account for 45%; Mobile appmpus accounts for 33%; Embedded MPUs accounts for 20%; Tablets account for 2%. Overall, it is estimated that the consumption of analog chips will account for 10.8% in 2022; Social communication accounted for 37.5%; Computers account for 6.5%; Automation accounts for 24.7%; Industry accounts for 19.5%; The government and the army account for 1%.
There is a strong demand for Byd Company Limited(002594) to place vehicle specification level IGBT orders to Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187)
Byd Company Limited(002594) has officially placed an order for Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) vehicle specification IGBT, with an order amount of 100 million yuan. Not only Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , but also Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) have obtained orders. As long as they pass the verification of Byd Company Limited(002594) , almost all the imported manufacturers have copies. China Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) , Jilin Sino-Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600360) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) already has the production capacity of medium and low voltage IGBT products, while there are only Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) and Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) Chinese manufacturers with the production capacity of high voltage IGBT chips.
The IGBT chip of Byd Company Limited(002594) is mainly supplied by Byd Company Limited(002594) and has also entered the supply system of Xiaokang automobile, Yutong automobile, Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) and Beijing times. Byd Company Limited(002594) China’s IGBT market share exceeds 20%, second only to Infineon. In 2019, the global IGBT market scale was US $5.42 billion, an increase of 6.9% over the previous year. This year, the global IGBT market scale has maintained steady growth. Among them, China’s market size is about US $2.35 billion, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year. The compound growth rate in the past five years is about 15%. The market size accounts for about 43% of the global market size, making it the largest power semiconductor market in all countries.
However, at present, the Chinese market is almost monopolized by foreign large enterprises. There is still an obvious gap between Chinese power semiconductor product R & D and manufacturing enterprises and international large enterprises in technology, resulting in about 90% of medium and high-end MOSFET and IGBT mainstream devices in the Chinese market relying on imports. Since the specifications of IGBT modules mainly used in China’s high-speed railway, smart grid, new energy and high-voltage frequency converter are above 6500v, the current technical barriers at the production end have an important impact on the development of these fields.
Weekly meso data
Upstream, the prices of Brent light crude oil, NYMEX light crude oil and NYMEX natural gas all fell. In terms of coal prices, coking coal futures prices rose, while coke and thermal coal futures prices fell. Power coal prices in Europe and Richard fell, power coal prices in Newcastle rose, and the number of ships at anchorage increased. LME nonferrous Futures Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin and nickel prices fell. COMEX gold, silver and copper all fell. Lithium prices continued to rise, Jiangxi tungsten concentrate prices fell slightly, and BDI rose sharply. In the middle reaches, the futures and spot prices of rebar fell, the operating rate of blast furnace decreased slightly, the capacity utilization rate of steel plant increased slightly, and the average price of cement decreased slightly. The prices of chemical products such as polyester staple fiber, polyester DTY, methanol, natural rubber, PTA and PVC fell, the price of viscose filament rose, and the MDI in Shandong continued to decline. Polysilicon prices outside China rose slightly. Downstream, the transaction area of commercial housing in the top ten cities decreased significantly. The average price of white feather chicken fell, and the wholesale price index of vegetables in Shandong continued to decline.
Risk tip: policy risk
