Key points of the report:
1、 Clearly optimistic, the restless market has been opened, and there are three reasons for optimism: ① the steady growth of the economic work conference has a clear banner. Stability is a clear requirement of the political and internal and external environment. In the future, the expectation of social finance recovery and economic stabilization will be gradually repaired. ② Policy marginal correction, unify five cognition: common prosperity, capital, primary products, major risks and double carbon, eliminate doubts, and consider short-term impact and implementation rhythm in medium-term reform. ③ Money and finance can be expected, and the equity market will benefit more. Finance has become the first priority, the intensity and rhythm of expenditure have been significantly increased, and infrastructure has grown steadily. There is a possibility of monetary interest rate and reserve requirement reduction in the first half of 2022.
2、 Attack varieties: new and old infrastructure, new and old energy conversion, Internet leader: ④ old infrastructure metropolitan area construction: steel and transportation equipment; New infrastructure and energy security: urban pipe network and water supply construction; Agricultural safety: safety of agricultural machinery and equipment and seed industry; Digital transformation and upgrading of traditional industries: machinery and digitization. ⑤ Double carbon is established first and then broken: power operation, power grid construction, photovoltaic wind power and coal chemical industry. ⑥ Normalize Internet antitrust, guide and support healthy development, and stabilize Internet leaders. ⑦ The strategy combines with relevant stocks of the industry: Iron and steel ( Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) ), machinery ( Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ), power operation ( China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ), power grid construction ( Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) ), photovoltaic ( Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) ), coal chemical industry ( Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ). ⑧ in the early stage, securities companies, methane emission reduction and military industry are still in the recommended sequence, and Mao index enters the layout stage in the medium term.
Text summary
Steady growth is a clear-cut requirement of the political and internal and external environment. Why did the economic work conference significantly increase the demand for stable growth? Combined with the interpretation of the press release and Han Wen, deputy director of the Finance Office of China Central Committee on December 11, 2022, we believe that the first is the political requirement. It is extremely important to do a good job in economic work and rank first in the economic, social and political environment to convene the 20th National Congress of the party in 2022. Secondly, China's economy is facing triple pressures: shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations. Thirdly, overseas is facing the dual impact of economic differentiation and water collection, that is, the external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain.
Five major theories and practices to correct cognition and eliminate doubts. The second reason for being clear and optimistic about the market is that the policy corrects deviation at the margin and unifies the pace. Previously, market expectations weakened, not only worried about the short-term economic downturn, but also the contradiction between the medium-term policy orientation and short-term stable growth. We believe that in the first half of 2022, steady growth under the counter cycle is the main tone, standing first and then breaking.
Money and finance can be expected, and the equity market will benefit more. We believe that finance will become the first priority, and the intensity and rhythm of fiscal expenditure in 2022 will be significantly increased. The meeting proposed to carry out infrastructure investment moderately in advance. We expect that special bonds will be issued in advance, local government infrastructure will be ahead of finance, and physical workload will be formed through infrastructure before the 20th National Congress in October 2022. At the same time, it is also worth looking forward to the monetary interest rate and reserve requirement reduction. The monetary policy in the general draft of the meeting should be flexible and appropriate, which is a new formulation. The growth rate of currency and social finance should be deleted, which means that GDP basically matches, and the macro leverage ratio is basically stable.
Offensive varieties of restless Market: new and old infrastructure, new and old energy conversion, Internet leader. At present, the core of the market is how to select attack varieties, combine strategies with industries, and recommend from the perspective of policy development in combination with the central economic work conference: new and old infrastructure, new and old energy conversion, and Internet leaders. ① Capital construction is the first priority, focusing on the construction of old capital construction metropolitan area: steel and transportation equipment; Agricultural Security: agricultural machinery and equipment, seed industry revitalization; New infrastructure and energy security: urban pipe network and water supply construction; Digital transformation of traditional industries: machinery and digitization. ② Double carbon is established first and then broken, new and old energy is converted, and focus on power operation, power grid construction and photovoltaic wind power. ③ Normalize Internet antitrust, guide and support healthy development, and stabilize Internet leaders.
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Inflation soared sharply in the short term and monetary policy tightened rapidly; Historical experience does not represent the future.
