event
The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. Xi Jinping deliver an important speech at the meeting, summarize the economic work in 2021, analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work in 2022. In his speech, Li Keqiang made specific arrangements for next year's economic work and made a concluding speech. The meeting demanded that next year's economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, that all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, that all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and that the policy force should be appropriately advanced.
Strategy review
Macro policies should be sound and effective. Recently, the Politburo meeting emphasized "stability at the head and seeking progress while maintaining stability". This central economic conference once again stressed the work of "six stabilities" and "six guarantees", and focused on stabilizing the macroeconomic market, highlighting the intention of the current policy to stabilize growth. From the perspective of specific measures, "steady growth" mainly starts from the perspective of Finance and currency. On the financial side, the meeting proposed to implement a new policy of tax reduction and fee reduction, reduce the burden on small and medium-sized enterprises and carry out infrastructure investment ahead of schedule; The monetary level is to ensure the "flexibility and moderation" of the policy and strengthen the support for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, especially scientific and technological innovation and green enterprises.
Stimulate the vitality of market players. To stimulate the innovation vitality of the market, we must create a fair competition environment. Last year, the central economic conference proposed "preventing the disorderly expansion of capital" to prevent monopoly enterprises from stifling innovation in order to safeguard their own interests, thereby damaging the social and public interests. This meeting once again proposed to strengthen anti-monopoly and anti unfair competition. It is expected that the anti-monopoly situation will remain severe next year.
Structural policies should focus on unblocking the circulation of the national economy. In terms of content, three aspects are mainly mentioned. First, enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, stimulate the emergence of a large number of "specialized, special and new" enterprises, and make up for the low profit margin of the traditional manufacturing industry by realizing the differentiated competition of "specialization, refinement, characteristics and novelty" of products. Therefore, "specialized, special and new" belongs to the key development direction of the national strategy; Second, accelerate the digital transformation, which is conducive to accelerating the transformation of the industry, giving birth to more new models and formats, and promoting China's economic growth; Third, the meeting continued to emphasize the basic positioning of "housing without speculation" to promote the development of the long-term rental housing market.
Correctly understand and grasp carbon peak and carbon neutralization. Compared with last year's formulation, this year more fully considers the actual situation. Last year's meeting mainly stressed: we should speed up the formulation of the action plan for reaching the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and support places with conditions to take the lead in reaching the peak; We should accelerate the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure and energy structure, and promote coal consumption to peak as soon as possible. This meeting proposed that the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy, based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy.
Science and technology policies should be solidly implemented. In the field of science and technology, last year, it was mainly proposed to "strengthen national strategic science and technology" and "enhance the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain supply chain", which was more aimed at the "neck" field represented by semiconductors. The formulation of this meeting is more inclined to emphasize the research in the basic field of science and technology. It is pointed out that the ten-year plan for basic research should be formulated and implemented, the national key laboratories should be reorganized, and the reform of scientific research institutes should be promoted. Generally speaking, scientific progress is inseparable from basic research. With the progress of scientific research and promoting the combination of industry, University and research, we can improve production efficiency and promote social progress to a greater extent.
The reform and opening up policy should activate the driving force of development. Fully implement the stock issuance registration system. At present, the overall operation of the registration systems on the science and innovation board and the gem is stable, which provides valuable experience for comprehensively promoting the reform of the registration system. At present, the time to promote the comprehensive registration system is ripe, and after the comprehensive registration system, the financial market can better serve the real economy.
Regional policies should enhance the balance and coordination of development. It is mainly divided into two aspects. On the one hand, it is necessary to deeply implement the major regional strategy and the coordinated regional development strategy. In October this year, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the outline of the construction plan of the two city economic circle in Chengdu and Chongqing, which is also to form an important growth pole for high-quality development in the West and promote the coordinated development of the East, central, West and northeast regions; On the other hand, it is necessary to promote rural revitalization. Rural Revitalization after comprehensive poverty alleviation is the main goal of current rural work and an important part of China's great cycle, which has far-reaching significance.
Risk warning: the enterprise's profit is less than expected; Increased volatility in overseas markets; Systemic risk.
