Ping An View:
Hong Kong stocks rose slightly last week, and most global stock markets rose. Most global stock markets rose last week, with developed market indexes rising more than emerging markets. The three major stock indexes of China and the United States in developed markets are the strongest. In emerging markets, except for the weekly decline of the Russian stock index by more than 3.0%, other major stock indexes have risen, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has increased by more than 3.0%; The Hong Kong stock market represented by the Hang Seng Index performed well, with a weekly rise and fall of 0.96%, ranking behind the middle of the world's major stock indexes.
The whole industry rose more or less, led by real estate construction and essential consumption. Last week, Hong Kong stocks rose more or fell less, led by real estate construction, with a weekly increase of more than 3.0%, and the increase of essential consumption was close to 2.7%, while raw materials, telecommunications, health care, non essential consumption and energy decreased. Due to the large number of rising industries and the rise of weight plates such as real estate construction, finance and information technology, Hong Kong stocks performed well last week.
US inflation hit a new high in nearly 40 years, and Biden endorsed the peak inflation. The November inflation data of the United States was released on the evening of December 10, Beijing time, and the published value was 6.8%, which was in line with expectations, the highest level since 1982; Core CPI also reached 4.9% year-on-year, the largest increase since mid-1991. However, US President Joe Biden believes that the current "is the peak of inflation". Our views are as follows: first, shortly after the Fed removed the "temporary" theory of inflation, Biden put forward the "peak" theory of inflation, which is more a passive choice due to the pressure of the mid-term election in the fourth quarter of 2022. Secondly, after throwing out the "peaking" theory of inflation, the Biden government is bound to ease the inflationary pressure from strengthening the fluency of the global supply chain and reducing economic and trade frictions. This is not only a rational choice to ease the inflationary pressure faced by the U.S. economy and financial markets, but also a necessary option for the Democratic Party to save the fate of the mid-term election. Thirdly, we are not particularly optimistic about the extent to which the Biden government can ease the inflationary pressure. Although Biden endorsed the peak inflation, we are still vigilant against the continued high inflation.
Southward funds re flowed into the Internet sector. From the data of southward funds since the beginning of the month or last week, southward funds re flowed into the Internet sector. For the prospect of Hong Kong stock Internet, we believe that under the general direction of industrial Internet, the pattern of Internet industry will usher in another round of drastic change, and the platform leaders occupying core technology resources will continue to benefit, while the vertical leaders need to wait until the "policy bottom" of each subdivided field appears. At present, the bargain hunting layout of platform leaders has high cost performance. Under the background of China concept stock game, the bottom layout of leading targets listed in Hong Kong stocks and US stocks may have better opportunities.
Hong Kong stocks focus on industry and consumption before the end of the year. Although Hong Kong stocks rebounded last week, they are still weak compared with A-Shares and even global stock markets. The Hang Seng index is still in the process of grinding the bottom. Considering that the Hang Seng index is close to breaking the net, Hong Kong stocks may not be far from the real bottom. Before the end of the year, we suggest that the Hong Kong stock strategy pay attention to the industrial chain and consumption field. Specifically, the high-end industrial manufacturing with rising prosperity, the consumption of necessities with the ability to raise prices and the consumption of pleasing oneself with high cost performance are the segments worthy of attention.
Risk tips: 1) covid-19 epidemic further increases the impact; 2) The global fiscal stimulus is less than expected or the monetary tightening is faster than expected; 3) Macroeconomic recovery is less than expected; 4) Overseas market volatility intensified.
