Comments on the central economic work conference
1. The economic situation of “triple pressure” is more cautious than that expressed in previous meetings. The direction of steady growth policy is further confirmed and will continue to help strengthen market confidence.
2. The statement of fiscal and monetary policy is basically consistent with the previous Politburo meeting, and the new “moderately ahead of infrastructure investment” points to the increase in the certainty of the infrastructure sector in the first quarter of next year.
3. It was first mentioned that “cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined” and attention should be paid to smoothing cyclical fluctuations.
4. Clearly put forward the “full implementation of the stock issuance registration system”, which has a far-reaching impact on the long-term development of securities companies.
5. Correctly understand and grasp the carbon peak and carbon neutralization: it will not move too fast to “de coal”; “New renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control”, and green power support will be enhanced.
6. “No speculation in housing and housing” shows that the general direction of strict regulation has not changed, and the “implementation of policies due to the city” is mentioned again.
A-share market resumed trading: consumption generally recovered
Index and style: A-Shares rose, dominated by optional and necessary consumption. Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 led the gains, with weekly increases and decreases of 4.1% and 3.14% respectively. In terms of style performance, optional consumption and necessary consumption, the market, medium P / E ratio and low profit stocks are dominant.
Industry performance: most of them rose, with leisure services, food and beverage and household appliances leading the increase.
Leading index: in the past 20 days, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 dominated, with food and beverage, steel and mining leading the rise.
Valuation tracking: A-share valuation rebounded, and most industry valuations rose.
Overseas market review: global stock markets rose in an all-round way
Major global stock indexes rose in an all-round way, with the three major U.S. stock indexes ranking first.
US stock market: the index closed up in an all-round way, the industry rose in an all-round way, the growth of information technology, energy and essential consumption ranked first, and the growth and market style were relatively dominant. The index valuation is upward as a whole, and the industry valuation is upward as a whole.
Hong Kong Stock Market: the industry rose in an all-round way, with the real estate construction industry, essential consumer industry and industry leading the increase. The index valuation is comprehensively upward, and most industry valuations are upward.
Performance of major categories of assets: RMB appreciation and recovery of risk appetite at home and abroad
The global market is rising and the developed market is dominant. Commodity prices generally rose, with crude oil, industrial metals, copper and gold all rising. In terms of interest rate bonds, the long and short end interest rates of US bonds rebounded; In terms of credit bonds, China’s three-year AAA + medium note credit spread narrowed and expanded in five years; In terms of convertible bonds, the convertible bond index fell. In terms of exchange rate, the US dollar index and the euro exchange rate fell, and the RMB appreciated. In terms of volatility, the VIX Index fell.
In terms of commodity relative performance, copper gold ratio, oil gold ratio and London gold / CRB industrial metals all declined. In terms of the relative performance of the bond market, the interest rate spread between China and the United States has expanded and that between Germany and the United States has narrowed. In terms of the relative value of stocks and bonds, the revised risk premium under Wande’s full a caliber has dropped, and the risk premium of S & P 500 has rebounded.
Leading assets: convertible bonds, US dollar and US Treasury bond futures dominated on the 20th.
Risk warning: Overseas volatility intensifies; Unexpected changes in macroeconomic policies; Regulatory policy exceeded expectations.
