– face up to the pressure and keep the word at the head
The meeting pointed out that we must see that China’s economic development faces triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations. The 20th CPC National Congress will be held next year, which is a major event in the political life of the party and the country. We should maintain a stable and healthy economic environment, a peaceful social environment for the country and the people, and a clean and positive political environment. We should strive to stabilize the macro-economic market, keep the economic operation within a reasonable range, maintain the overall social stability, and welcome the victory of the 20th CPC National Congress. Next year’s economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. All regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy. All parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced. We should strengthen and improve macro-control, strengthen cross cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and improve the foresight and pertinence of macro-control. According to the preliminary accounting results of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter released by the National Bureau of statistics, due to the rise of the base in the same period of last year and the impact of the epidemic and flood, the year-on-year economic growth rate in the first three quarters was lower than that in the first half of the year. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate in the third quarter was 4.9% and 0.2% month on month.
We believe that, on the one hand, the triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations need to actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, stabilize the macroeconomic market and keep the economy running within a reasonable range. On the other hand, after a long period of real estate investment, infrastructure investment and export driven economic growth, China’s economic development environment and comparative advantage are changing significantly, and it is increasingly difficult to maintain the old production function combination in the past. On November 24, 2021, vice premier Liu he published an article “we must achieve high-quality development” in the people’s daily, which pointed out: in the economic system, some areas are close to modernization, some are still semi modern, and some are very inefficient and outdated; At this stage, China’s production function is changing, the factor conditions, combination mode and allocation efficiency of economic development are changing, and the hard constraints are obviously increasing. On the whole, we believe that at the current stage of China’s economic development, the policy space and policy methods for stabilizing the economy should be significantly different from those in the past.
– give play to the positive role of capital as a factor of production and effectively control its negative role
The meeting proposed that we should correctly understand and grasp the characteristics and behavior laws of capital. The socialist market economy is a great creation. There must be various forms of capital in the socialist market economy. We should give full play to the positive role of capital as a factor of production and effectively control its negative role. We should set up “traffic lights” for capital, strengthen the effective supervision of capital according to law, and prevent the barbaric growth of capital. We should support and guide the standardized and healthy development of capital, adhere to and improve the basic socialist economic system, unswervingly consolidate and develop the public economy, and unswervingly encourage, support and guide the development of the non-public economy.
– strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in scientific and technological innovation and stimulate “specialized and new” enterprises
The meeting proposed to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects, and stimulate the emergence of a large number of “specialized and new” enterprises. Science and technology policies should be solidly implemented. We should implement the three-year action plan for the reform of the scientific and technological system and formulate a ten-year plan for the implementation of basic research. Strengthen national strategic scientific and technological forces, give full play to the role of national laboratories, reorganize national key laboratories, and promote the reform of scientific research institutes. Strengthen the dominant position of enterprise innovation and deepen the combination of industry, University and research. Improve and optimize the ecology of scientific and technological innovation and form a solid scientific research style. Continue to carry out international scientific and technological cooperation.
We believe that the only way to continuously improve the quality, efficiency and coordination of China’s industrial and scientific and technological development is to break the monopoly of foreign technology and solve the “neck” problem of key core technology, strengthen the dominant position of enterprise innovation, and cultivate and develop a large number of “specialized, special and new” small and medium-sized enterprises.
Risk tips:
Global economic slowdown; Covid-19 epidemic uncertainty.
