At present, the main tracks concerned by the market include: new energy index, new material index, high-end equipment manufacturing index, Ning portfolio and Mao index.
From the perspective of roe, several core tracks are still in the expansion cycle since 2020. In 2021q3, the roe of Mao index reached 17.2%, followed by new material index 14.3%, Ning portfolio 13.5%, new energy index 9.5% and high-end equipment manufacturing index 8.8%.
From the perspective of net interest rate, Mao index roe reached 16.2% in 2021q3, followed by Ning portfolio 12.9%, new material index 12.3%, new energy index 9.8% and high-end equipment manufacturing index 6.9%.
From the perspective of gross profit margin, Mao index roe reached the highest of 31.9% in 2021q3, followed by Ning portfolio 27.7%, new material index 23.2%, new energy index 23.5% and high-end equipment manufacturing index 19.84%.
From the perspective of net profit growth, in 2021q3, Ning portfolio was 68%, new energy index was 55%, new material index was 54%, high-end equipment manufacturing index was 29.9%, and Mao index reached 29.4%.
From the perspective of revenue growth, in 2021q3, Ning portfolio growth rate was 59.3%, new energy index was 37.6%, new material index was 37.7%, Mao index reached 32.2%, and high-end equipment manufacturing index was 28%.
The traditional big consumption track includes agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances, food and beverage, textile and garment, light industry manufacturing, medicine and biology, commercial trade, catering and tourism and other industries. During the recession from 2011 to 2012, the big consumption track continued to outperform the manufacturing, investment, service and other tracks; A similar situation occurred during the recession in 2018. The consumption track remained resilient until June 2018. Although it subsequently made up for the decline, it rose rapidly again after the recession ended. The big consumption track is the core of the tertiary industry. In previous economic recessions, the tertiary industry still contributes more than 60% of GDP growth weight. Therefore, it has become a more significant relatively prosperous track in the market recession, and has obtained strong toughness and resistance to decline.
Looking back on some driving factors of GDP in the economic cycle of the past 15 years, the contribution proportion of the secondary industry is gradually decreasing, from 50% to less than 35%, while the marginal contribution of the tertiary industry is still increasing, from 45% in 2005-2010 to more than 60% since 2015. The long-term contribution of the primary industry is less than 5%, lacking core support for the economy. At present, the economy is very similar to the historical period, including: after the stimulus of RMB 4 trillion in 2009, the contribution of the secondary industry to GDP surged to 58% in June 2010 and fell to 50% after Q1 2011. The economic stimulus after the epidemic in March 2020 made the contribution of the secondary industry to GDP rise to 55%, and now it has dropped to 40%. The pre epidemic level was 32%.
In the current period, the risk premium of A-Shares was 0.23%, compared with -0.01% in the previous period. The overall profitability of A-Shares improved significantly, PE continued to revise downward, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds was 2.86% in the current period, which continued to maintain the investment value of A-share risk premium.
In terms of large and medium disk rotation, the price ratio of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 to China Stock Exchange 500 generally showed a downward trend from 1.13 in mid February to the end of April. After a short recovery in May, it continued to show a downward trend, and the ratio in this period increased from 0.791 in the previous period to 0.819. The mid market continued to show strength over the market. In terms of the rotation of large and small stocks, the price ratio between Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Guozheng 2000 has generally shown a downward trend since mid February (this year’s high of 0.85). After a short recovery in May, it has continued to show a downward trend, and the ratio in this period has increased from 0.503 in the previous period to 0.530. The small market continues to be stronger than the large market.
In the current period, the dividend yield of Wande quana changed from 1.46% in the previous period to 1.45% in the current period, and the yield of ten-year Treasury bond – Wande quana dividend yield was 1.4035%, And warning value 2.5% The distance from (the highest point of the bull market in the past) changed from 112.15bp in the previous period to 109.65bp in the current period. The dividend yield of SSE 50 changed from 1.40% in the previous period to 1.39% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds – SSE 50 dividend yield was 0.1627%, and the distance from the warning value of 1.1% changed from 104.49bp in the previous period to 93.73bp in the current period. The dividend yield of CSI 300 changed from 2.79% in the previous period to 2.69% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds – CSI 300 shares The interest rate was 0.765%, and the distance from the warning value of 1.8% changed from 111.32bp in the previous period to 103.50bp in the current period. The dividend yield of CSI 500 changed from 2.15% in the previous period to 2.09% in the current period. The yield of ten-year Treasury bond – dividend yield of CSI 500 was 1.4635%, and the distance from the warning value of 3% changed from 155.56bp in the previous period to 153.65bp in the current period.
