Total research
Has the RMB exchange rate peaked—— Liquidity insight Series II
Release date: December 6, 2021
Analyst: Gao Ruidong / Liu Wenhao
Looking ahead, the triple factors that pushed the RMB exchange rate upward in the early stage have begun to show signs of differentiation, the US dollar index shows a stabilizing and rebound trend, China's export growth rate will continue to decline, and the degree of monetary easing between China and the United States will tend to converge. Therefore, the probability of further upward movement of RMB exchange rate is not high, but the probability of significant downward movement in the short term is also not high. We expect that the RMB exchange rate, which has entered the peaking stage, may maintain two-way fluctuations in the range of 6.3-6.7 (US dollar to RMB) in the later stage.
Easing inflation concerns and further opening of monetary easing space -- Comments on price data in November 2021
Release date: December 9, 2021
Analyst: Gao Ruidong; Contact: Liu Xingchen
In November, CPI accelerated upward, which was affected by the low base and the rise of pig and vegetable prices. PPI peaked and fell as scheduled in November, which is related to the easing of commodity supply constraints, and the prices of coal and high energy consuming industries generally fell. Looking ahead, the steady downward of PPI and the limited upward of CPI will further open the space for loose monetary policy, and the risk of stagflation in the early stage will turn to recession concerns. At the same time, the gradual convergence of inflation scissors will improve the profit differentiation between upstream and downstream, and the industry boom will begin to switch to the downstream.
Stabilizing credit still needs policy force -- Comments on financial data in November 2021
Release date: December 9, 2021
Analyst: Gao Ruidong / Liu Wenhao
The new social finance in November was significantly lower than the market expectation, mainly dragged down by on balance sheet credit. Looking ahead, whether the growth rate of social finance can further rebound mainly depends on the degree of credit development. It is expected that under the background of the gradual development of the credit stabilization policy, the constraints on the credit supply side will be alleviated, and the difficulty of stabilizing credit mainly lies in whether the demand side can stabilize. From the market data, the bill impulse that usually appears at the end of the month has been deduced to the extreme in early December, which reflects that the new credit may face insufficient demand in December. Therefore, we should not hold overly optimistic expectations for the growth rate of social finance in December.
