Strategic view
Last Friday, the stock indexes of the two cities of A-Shares showed a sideways pattern as a whole. As of the close, the Shanghai stock index fell 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.24%, the gem index rose 0.22%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.46%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.20%, and the China Stock Exchange 500 fell 0.19%. The number of gainers in the two cities was 2231, lower than the average value of 2285 last week and lower than 2654 in the previous trading day. The limit was 88, lower than the average value of 93 last week and higher than 78 in the previous trading day. The net purchase of northbound funds was 9.148 billion yuan, the average value of last week was 3.023 billion yuan, and the net purchase of the previous trading day was 21.656 billion yuan. The turnover of the two cities was 1236 billion yuan, breaking trillion yuan for the 36th consecutive trading day. On the whole, the weak shock of A-Shares belongs to the action of rest. At present, the market is relatively safe. We also analyzed that the repair of undervalued blue chips has not ended. The shock is still the main tone. There is still room to rise at the beginning of this week, but note that above the 3680 point of the Shanghai stock index, there can be no large-scale and rapid breakthrough, and there will still be wide shock. On Friday, the central economic work stressed the main tone of stable development next year, and once again stressed the promotion of a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies, which also means that the real estate market will enter a stable leverage stage, which is expected to continue the repair of the real estate and banking sectors. In addition, the arguments of “seeking progress while maintaining stability”, “appropriate policy development”, “coordination and linkage of fiscal and monetary policies, and organic combination of cross cycle and counter cycle macro-control policies” may mean that after stabilizing credit in the fourth quarter of 2021, the market is expected to usher in a credit expansion cycle in 2022, which is expected for a shares.
Stock index futures trading strategy
Viewpoint: IC futures turn to premium, and short-term market sentiment warms up
(1) On December 10, the positions of if, IH and IC contracts were 200000, 107300 and 267000 respectively, with a day-on-day increase of – 3.28%, – 5.72% and – 0.89%;
(2) On December 10, the difference between the contract and spot prices of if, IH and IC in the current month was 17.88 points, 9.77 points and 15.35 points, which was 7.37 points, 6.75 points and 33.27 points higher than the previous trading day. Operation suggestions: if2112 mainly buys on bargain hunting, with a support of 5040 points
Option trading strategy
Viewpoint: the implied volatility remains low and the short-term index fluctuates strongly
(1) On December 10, the PCR (positions) of 50ETF option, Huatai 300etf option, harvest 300etf option and 300 stock index option were 1.03, 1.21, 1.19 and 0.95 respectively. The PCR values of 50ETF and 300etf options decreased slightly.
(2) On December 10, the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option were 15% and 16.3% respectively, and the implied volatility of 300etf option and 50ETF option decreased slightly.
Operation suggestion: radical strategy: none at present; Steady strategy: investors can buy 50ETF to buy 3400 in December and sell 50ETF to buy 3500 in December at the same time. The maximum profit of a single portfolio strategy is 844 yuan and the maximum loss is 156 yuan; Hedging strategy: None
Risk statement
1. Rapid cooling of market transactions; 2 short term panic continued to spread risk factors.
