From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing. Our comments are as follows:
1. The economy is facing triple pressure, and we are firmly facing the "20th National Congress". Compared with the emphasis on "weak foundation for economic recovery" in the process of epidemic impact recovery last year, the judgment of the macro situation next year at this meeting is more inclined to worry about the downward pressure on China's economy this year, and points out that the economy will face the triple pressure of "demand contraction, supply shock and expectation weakening" in the future. Considering that the party's "20th National Congress" will be held next year, the demand for stable economic growth has increased significantly. Therefore, "stability" is still the primary goal of economic work next year.
2. Fiscal policy expansion focuses on "efficiency" and is coordinated with monetary policy. Facing the triple pressure of the economy, the cross cycle adjustment of macro policies will be strengthened next year. On the financial side, the meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to ensure the intensity of financial expenditure and accelerate the progress of expenditure", and "carry out infrastructure investment moderately in advance". Considering the excess revenue this year, the postposition of local bonds in 2021 and the preposition of local bonds in 2022, the "ammunition" for financial development next year will be sufficient. However, the meeting also put forward the requirement of "paying more attention to accuracy and sustainability" for finance, and "resolutely curb the new implicit debt of local governments", which may mean that the policy care will not be too radical. The currency side will continue to be flexible and moderate, and the liquidity is expected to remain stable and loose next year.
3. Efforts should be made to activate the vitality of micro entities, and policy support should be carried out in a multi pronged manner. The Politburo meeting listed "micro policies to continuously stimulate the vitality of market players" as the second key work, which shows the high degree of attention. Whether the main body of the market is active or not determines the employment of the whole society, which is the key to realizing the "stability" of the policy. In terms of policies, in addition to anti-monopoly and strengthening intellectual property protection to promote a good market competition environment, the meeting also stressed the "burden reduction and relief for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households" from the level of tax reduction and fee reduction, promoted the "increment, expansion and price reduction" of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises from the financing level, and provided support for the recovery and development of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in a multi pronged manner.
4. The pace of opening to the outside world is expected to accelerate, and the market will fully implement the registration system. The meeting pointed out that "expanding high-level opening to the outside world". In combination with the "CSRC is studying and launching relevant measures to further expand the opening of the capital market in accordance with the unified deployment of a new round of high-level opening to the outside world" disclosed by the state media in November this year, it is expected that the pace of opening the capital market to the outside world will be accelerated next year. In addition, the meeting also made it clear that the "full implementation of the stock issuance registration system" next year means that the era of the full registration system is coming, which is expected to further boost the trading enthusiasm of the main board.
5. Real estate continues to emphasize "no speculation in housing" and support the satisfaction of reasonable needs. This meeting continued the keynote of "housing without speculation". Compared with last year's extensive deployment of the construction of the rental market, this year continued the keynote of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, emphasizing "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry". Under the triple pressure of the economy next year, The word "stability" also puts forward demands for the smooth operation of real estate. It is expected that the overall real estate policy will show a tone of partial care next year, and "soft landing" has become the policy goal.
6. Implement a comprehensive economy strategy to ensure the supply of primary products. The meeting emphasized "giving priority to conservation" and advocated conservation in the fields of production and consumption, which provided development opportunities for the energy efficient utilization industry and the recycling industry of resources and wastes. In terms of the supply of primary products, the meeting mentioned "accelerating the development and application of advanced exploitation technologies for oil and gas resources", which is expected to benefit the oil and gas equipment industry. In addition, the meeting also proposed to "put the improvement of comprehensive agricultural production capacity in a more prominent position". In addition to the revitalization of seed industry and farmland construction already emphasized at last year's economic work conference, the meeting also proposed to "improve the level of agricultural machinery and equipment" to bring development opportunities to agricultural machinery enterprises.
7. Double carbon pays attention to overall and coordinated promotion, and the use of new energy is not included in the total energy consumption control. The discussion on the double carbon policy integrates the experience and lessons of this year's double carbon work, emphasizes that "we should unswervingly promote it, but it is impossible to accomplish its work in one battle", and emphasizes that "the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy", so as to provide policy guidance for avoiding sports carbon reduction. In addition, the meeting also specifically explained the energy consumption in the production of new renewable energy and its raw materials, which was not included in the total energy consumption control, which created favorable conditions for the new energy industry to accelerate the substitution of traditional energy.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is not as expected.
