Basic conclusion
Four major impacts of the central economic work conference on the stock market:
1) Established a window for loose policy. In terms of monetary policy, the central economic work conference has added “maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity” and removed the expression “maintaining the basic matching between the growth of money supply and social financing scale and economic growth, and maintaining the basic stability of macro leverage”. This may indicate that the space for monetary policy easing has been opened, and it does not rule out the subsequent reduction of MLF interest rate to guide the decline of LPR interest rate.
2) Alleviated market related uncertainty concerns. In terms of common prosperity, it is clearly proposed that achieving the goal of common prosperity is a long-term historical process. First, make the “cake” bigger and better, and then cut and divide the “cake”. Further clarify the long-term nature of the goal of common prosperity and the practical path to achieve the goal; In terms of capital expansion, the meeting proposed to set up a “traffic light” for capital, strengthen the effective supervision of capital according to law, and prevent the barbaric growth of capital. This is different from the formulation of “preventing disorderly expansion of capital” last year, indicating the attitude of senior management to support and guide the standardized development of capital.
3) It is clear that the general policy of real estate policy remains unchanged. Previously, the Politburo meeting did not mention the positioning of real estate without speculation. Combined with the relaxation of policies in the field of real estate credit, there have been some changes in the orientation of the market towards real estate policies. However, the meeting once again clarified the positioning of real estate without speculation, because the city implemented policies to promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. We believe that de real estate is imperative in the stage of high-quality development.
4) The direction of industrial policy focuses on high-quality development. First of all, improving the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry is in a high position, and it is clearly proposed to start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects to stimulate the emergence of a large number of “specialized and new” enterprises; Secondly, rectify the previous aggressive policy of carbon reduction, clarify the basic national conditions dominated by coal, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy. In addition, it is proposed for the first time to “change from” dual control of energy consumption “to” dual control of carbon emission “, and the dual carbon related policies have entered the stage of overall coordination and promotion.
After the foresight meeting, there are three major trends in the A-share market: trend 1: the uncertain factors affecting the market risk appetite gradually subside, and the market risk appetite is expected to rebound. Trend 2: correction of carbon reduction policies, falsification of the logic of limiting the production of upstream resource products, and transmission of industrial chain profits to the middle and lower reaches. Trend 3: the direction of industrial policy is clear, big manufacturing ushers in a new chapter, and the trend of double improvement of penetration and localization rate is clear. Under the background of energy transformation, manufacturing upgrading and the rise of innovative drugs, the penetration rate of high-end manufacturing and other industries continued to increase. At the same time, under the background of trade war and epidemic impact on the supply chain, the localization rate of China’s independent brands is also gradually increasing in major segments.
Market view: first suppress and then raise the market into the second half. It is not pessimistic about the A-share market in the next quarter. The downward pressure on China’s economy is increasingly apparent. In the next half of the year, the economy is at the bottom stage, and the economic probability will reach the bottom in the middle of next year. The downward performance has become the unanimous expectation of the market and will not become the core factor leading the market. Policy is the core driver of A-Shares in the next stage. Monetary and credit policies reopen the marginal easing window and do not rule out the subsequent reduction of MLF interest rate by the central bank.
Industry configuration: focus on the market layout at the end of the year and early next year, focus on the main line return of the new energy sector, pay attention to the oversold rebound opportunities of medicine and consumption, and the short-term and fast opportunities of securities companies. The main line of the market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is still the new energy sector with long-term logic and no bad short-term performance. In addition, there may be opportunities for oversold rebound in consumption and medicine at the end of the year. In addition, there may be short-term and fast opportunities for securities companies. Continue to focus on the segments of midstream capital goods benefiting from Chinese and overseas capital expenditure, such as intelligent manufacturing, parts, etc. The subdivided industrial chain benefiting from new energy in the basic chemical industry also deserves attention.
Risk tip: the economic recovery is less than expected and the macro liquidity contraction risk
