Key investment points:
Last week, the important market indexes were differentiated. Only the gem index closed down slightly by 0.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.63%, and the Shanghai 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose sharply by 4.10% and 3.14%. The performance of the heavyweight sector was relatively bright. In terms of transaction volume, the daily average transaction volume exceeded trillion yuan, with a turnover of 6.0 trillion yuan throughout the week, an increase of 169.7 billion yuan month on month; Among them, funds from northbound continued to flow in on a large scale, with a net inflow of 48.834 billion yuan throughout the week, a record high in the scale of net inflow in a single week. In terms of industries, Shenwan level industries rose more or fell less, with leisure services, food and beverage and household appliances leading the increase, all exceeding 5.0%; The industries of national defense and military industry, mining and electrical equipment decreased.
In terms of data, the import and export data in November continued to be better than expected. Behind the decline in the year-on-year growth rate of exports was the highly resilient month on month expansion, and the month on month growth rate of imports in the same period increased significantly with the help of the steady growth care policy. Looking ahead, the impact of the export base is expected to weaken, the superposition of overseas epidemic situations is conducive to China's export, and the export end is expected to be flat; On the import side, the price contribution will be weakened, but the boost of steady growth measures to demand may be enhanced, and the import is expected to be basically flat. In terms of inflation, in November, CPI rose 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 2.3%, of which pork price is an important driving force; In the same period, PPI fell by 0.6 percentage points to 12.9% year-on-year, the scissors difference between CPI and PPI fell by 1.4 percentage points to 10.6%, and the cost pressure of middle and downstream enterprises began to slow down; Looking ahead, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI and PPI in December will be downward, and the latter will be more downward, and the profit crowding in the middle and lower reaches will be further alleviated.
On August 8-10, the central economic work conference was held, pointing out that next year's macro-economy will face the triple pressure of "demand contraction, supply shock and expectation weakening". It is expected that "stability" will still be the primary goal of economic work next year. The macro policy will strengthen cross cycle regulation. The financial side pointed out that we should speed up the progress of expenditure and carry out infrastructure investment ahead of schedule. However, considering the requirements of "paying more attention to accuracy and sustainability", the intensity will not be too radical; The currency side will continue to maintain the current stable and loose state. In terms of key work, the second item of the meeting was to activate the vitality of micro entities, which shows that it attaches great importance to it, and policy support is expected to be multi pronged. In the capital market, the pace of opening to the outside world is expected to accelerate, and the registration system will be fully implemented, which is expected to boost the trading enthusiasm of the main board. In terms of real estate, we continue to emphasize "no speculation in real estate". At the same time, we also point out that "supporting reasonable needs to be met". It is expected that the overall real estate policy will show a protective tone next year, and "soft landing" has become the policy goal. In terms of supply guarantee, the meeting mentioned "accelerating the development and application of advanced exploitation technologies for oil and gas and other resources" and "improving the comprehensive agricultural production capacity", which is expected to bring development opportunities to relevant industries. Finally, the meeting pointed out that new energy consumption is not included in the total energy consumption control, which will create favorable conditions for the new energy industry to accelerate the substitution of traditional energy.
In terms of investment strategy, the market style differentiation was more obvious last week, and the performance of weight plates was relatively strong. At the same time, the inflow scale of foreign capital also hit a record high. For the prospect of foreign capital inflow next year, in addition to the "expanding opening up" mentioned at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the easing of Sino US relations and the improvement of A-share risk hedging tools at this stage are also expected to bring about the continuous entry of foreign capital. Therefore, the preferences of foreign capital include medicine Consumer sectors, including food, beverage and household appliances, are expected to receive incremental funds. For the style switching of the market last week, in addition to the impact of foreign capital, we believe that the fund ranking at the end of the year has not ended, and the impact of institutional position adjustment and stock exchange is still. For the sustainability of the consumer sector, we have prompted the investment opportunities of the consumer sector in the annual strategy released on the 3rd. The gradual prominence of the cost performance of the sector and the further inflow of foreign capital are expected to support the consumer sector. From the perspective of next year, the allocation value of the consumer sector is still increasing. For the new energy sector, we believe that the opportunities in the subdivided field of "Fengguang storage" under the support of the global new energy policy are still worthy of attention. In addition, from the perspective of dilemma reversal, we can pay attention to the "new infrastructure" with unshakable strategic position and high safety margin, semiconductor, media and other science and technology sectors, as well as the breeding sector with continuous clearing of production capacity and the inflection point of bargain hunting game.
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations, and the global epidemic development exceeded expectations.
