Market view: actively confirm the policy signal and fully participate in the cross year market
The central economic work conference has set the policy tone to stabilize growth and appropriately move forward, and the positive signal of the policy has been confirmed. Growth is expected to bottom out, liquidity is abundant and positive compared with the previous period, and risk appetite is significantly improved. At present, we should fully participate in the cross year market and layout. In terms of industry allocation, stick to growth, pay attention to the structural opportunities of consumption and finance and the infrastructure chain benefiting from the advance of policies. In terms of theme investment, pay attention to the investment opportunities replaced by military industry + digital currency + basic industrial chain.
In terms of growth, the growth rate is expected to bottom out and pick up. In November, CPI continued to rise, with obvious pull of fresh vegetables and aquatic products and obvious weakening of pork drag. It is expected to fall slightly in December. The year-on-year decline of PPI was mainly affected by the adjustment of coal price. The peak of PPI in October has passed, and it will start to fall gradually in the follow-up, but the speed may be slightly slower than the market expectation. It mainly comes from the downward speed or relative slowdown of coal price under the background of strong market demand. In November, exports continued to maintain an ultra-high boom. The growth rate of export commodities related to holidays and lack of core lines increased significantly. Except Japan, exports to other mainstream economies increased to varying degrees this month. It is expected that in December, in the peak export season at the end of the year and with strong external demand, exports are expected to remain high.
The signal of more abundant liquidity has been confirmed, supporting the full flowering of market layout. The decision-making level set the tone of "organic combination of cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies", superimposing the implementation of RRR reduction and the reduction of refinancing interest rate, and the monetary support to the market will be more obvious. In terms of finance, the expenditure intensity and progress are more positive than those in the early stage, and the follow-up of social finance is expected to be further warmed up. Positive policy signals boosted the downward trend of interest rate probability, and micro liquidity gave strong support.
In terms of risk appetite, the macro policy tone of "steady growth" was obvious, slightly exceeding market expectations. The risk disposal of primary products, real estate and finance is more gentle and controllable. The central economic work conference released a positive and optimistic policy tone and signal, which will become the most important support and guarantee to boost market risk appetite and gradually expand the cross year market.
Configuration: comprehensive and active, focusing on the three main lines of building materials, financial real estate and green technology
The policy space is opened, the market is carried out in an all-round way, and the configuration is more active and comprehensive. The loose tone of the policy side has been gradually confirmed and further opened up space. Since the expected reduction of the reserve requirement for a long time on Monday, to the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, and then to the central economic work conference, it is mentioned that China's economy is facing triple pressure and the policy force is appropriately advanced. It can be seen that the overall policy tone has been rising step by step over the past week. In particular, the overall tone of the central economic work conference is more relaxed than expected. The bottom of the economy is basically confirmed, and the market performance will be more positive in the future. Therefore, for the subsequent allocation, we believe that while always prompting the active layout to participate in the cross-year market and emphasizing the opportunities of the growth sector, we can turn to more positive ideas and tilt from structural to comprehensive allocation. First, in terms of growth, we will continue to adhere to the industrial chain of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy, energy storage and semiconductors in the medium term, and further explore the links of capacity supply and demand gap and profit improvement in the industrial chain, such as the profit improvement of photovoltaic middle and downstream modules; The second is the infrastructure chain, and the building materials sector benefiting from the advance force of the policy is added; Third, the direction of consumption and structural opportunities, focusing on the automobile industry recovery and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery benefiting from the price rise; Fourth, in the financial direction, in addition to the securities companies affected by the trading volume and comprehensive registration system, the additional allocation policy eases the superposition of real estate with valuation repair, as well as banks with corresponding asset quality improvement.
In terms of theme, focus on the theme investment opportunities of military industry + digital currency + basic industrial chain substitution. In addition to the booming military industry and the digital currency with accelerated technology landing and increasingly rich application scenarios, we can also focus on the transition from localization 2.0 represented by semiconductors and integrated circuits to more subtle parts localization 3.0, focusing on alternative opportunities for the basic industrial chain.
Risk statement
Sino US relations deteriorated beyond expectations; There are deviations in policy interpretation; The omricon epidemic situation repeatedly exceeded expectations.
