Strategy: firmly grasp the main line of "steady growth"
The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10.
The word "stability" runs through the whole article. The word "stability" was mentioned in the full text of the central economic work conference in 2021 for 25 times, a significant increase compared with 15 times in 2020. The reason lies in the "triple pressure", and the policy tone is more positive and forward. The reason for the emphasis on "stability" lies in the triple pressure of "demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation faced by China's economic development". Under this background, the central economic work conference clearly pointed out that "all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced".
We will accelerate the progress of fiscal expenditure and keep the tone of monetary policy unchanged. In 2021, the statement of fiscal policy was more positive, pointing out that "ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure" and "accelerate the progress of expenditure". It is expected that the fiscal support for fundamentals will be obvious in the first quarter of 2022. Monetary policy has no marginal increment. Under the tone of "all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability", the cooperation of the central bank's monetary policy in the next stage is a deterministic event, and the current relatively loose monetary policy environment can be continued.
Steady growth involves three areas: first, the real estate policy is broad and moderate. The central economic work conference in 2021 re mentioned "implementing policies according to the city", which means that there is more room for real estate regulation and control policies, which is good for the margin of the real estate industry; At the same time, we adhere to the positioning of "real estate living without speculation", so we believe that the focus of recent policies to boost the real estate industry lies in "supporting the bottom". Second, the importance of consumption has increased. In 2021, the central economic work conference will rank first in the important tasks of "implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and enhancing the endogenous driving force of development", which is significantly more important than the third in 2020. In addition, the policy summary also emphasizes the importance of ensuring employment, and more consumption related "steady growth" policies can be expected in the next stage. Third, infrastructure investment. The 2021 economic work conference specifically made it clear that "infrastructure construction should be carried out moderately in advance". Since June 2021, the two-year average of infrastructure growth has continued to decline. Stimulated by accelerating infrastructure construction policies in 2022, it is expected that infrastructure growth will reverse the current downward trend.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuations exceeded expectations, epidemic development exceeded expectations, and policy promotion was less than expected.
