Core conclusion: the tone of the central economic work conference is very optimistic. Since 2014 and 2018, it has re emphasized "taking economic construction as the center" and "stability" has become the most important keyword. Compared with 2015 and 2019, the stock market has abundant liquidity in the year after steady growth, but the profit will continue to decline for a long time. We judge that the tone of steady growth this time will make the index break through again. Due to the good policies, funds and emotions, the probability of this breakthrough is greater. If we can see that residents' funds and credit exceed expectations in January, the cross year market can last until March. After the new year's market, it is appropriate to turn to defense, and steady growth can raise the valuation in the quarter, but it will take a long time to change the profit trend.
(1) The importance of steady growth is comparable to that of 2014 and 2018. The central economic work conference has put steady growth at the top of its agenda and established the importance of steady growth in 2022. Steady growth is a very important policy hot spot for most of 2022. There have been several long-lasting recovery in steady growth in history, namely, from November 2011 to December 2012, from March 2014 to June 2015 and from July 2018 -March 2020. Generally, each recovery lasts for more than one year, mostly from the middle of the economic decline to the recovery period. This time, the importance of steady growth has increased, and the corresponding policy implementation and market attention may be maintained for about one year.
Compared with the central economic work conference over the years, this time "adhering to economic construction as the center is the requirement of the party's basic line" was added again. The previous two times mentioned that taking economic construction as the center were 2014 and 2018, both of which were in the profit decline cycle of A-share listed companies. Subsequently, in 2015 and 2019, the stock market experienced a decline in earnings, but the valuation increased, and most of them raised the valuation first, and then reflected the decline in earnings. Overall, in the year of steady growth, the stock market fluctuated violently due to the conflict between profit and liquidity.
(2) The new year's market is getting better and better. This steady growth will also push the index into the critical point of breaking through again, which will be the fourth attempt to break through the index this year. The three breakthroughs in February, June and September ended in failure, and the index has not been able to get rid of the range shock. Last week, land stock connect bought a lot of funds northward, indicating that the allocation funds began to increase at the end of the year. If the next one If it can be observed that Chinese residents' funds allocate additional equity assets within the month, the probability of breakthrough will increase significantly. We think the probability is still very high, especially under the background of steady growth expectation.
(3) After the cross year market is completed, we should take appropriate precautions, because it will take time for steady growth to produce results. According to the experience of 2014 and 2018, steady growth can raise market valuation stage by stage, but it will take a long time to reverse the downward trend of profitability. The important reason behind this is that the steady growth after 2014 is smaller than that in 2008 and 2012, and steady growth is dominated by steady growth , after steady growth in 2014 and 2018, the growth rate of infrastructure investment increased slightly, which can only stabilize the rate of economic decline. The complete end of the economic downturn requires at least one year after steady growth.
Risk factors: the real estate market fell more than expected, and US stocks fluctuated sharply.
