Recently, northbound funds have shown positive performance, with policy support superimposed on RMB appreciation, attracting northbound funds to enter the market at the end of the year. As of December 9, the cumulative net inflow of funds from the north this year was 398.106 billion yuan, which was in a net inflow pattern every month. Historically, the index probability also rose when there was a large net inflow of northward funds. Before the net inflow of more than 20 billion yuan this time (December 9), northbound capital has maintained a net inflow trend for six consecutive days, which is worthy of attention. From the proportion of transaction volume, northbound capital has maintained strong activity this year. Under the background of maintaining a relatively strong RMB exchange rate, international capital still has the momentum of continuous inflow.
Net inflow of the industry: consumption and finance are favored, while electrical equipment, military industry and other sectors are weakened. The inflow of food and beverage, banking, non bank finance, electronics and household appliances exceeded 10 billion, and the inflow of northward funds in medicine, biology, building materials, transportation and other sectors also increased. The net outflow of electrical equipment, communications, non-ferrous metals, textiles and clothing was less than 5 billion yuan. It is worth noting that the increase and decrease of northbound funds in the industry also show an obvious positive correlation with the rise and fall of relevant industries.
Inflow of individual stocks: the stock market value of more than half of the stocks rose, far exceeding the decline. The large cap blue chips in the consumer and financial sectors are still an important direction for the net inflow of funds to the north, accounting for 9 of the top 10 overweight stocks. From the top ten stocks with changes in market value, the food and beverage sector includes Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ; One household appliance and one leisure service, respectively Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) and China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) . The China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) of the financial sector were also selected. The market value increment of the first heavyweight stock Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) exceeded 17 billion yuan, twice that of the second heavyweight stock Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . It can be seen that northbound funds have significantly increased most of their traditional heavy positions. Northbound capital has recently moderately reduced its holdings of new energy and some growth stocks.
From the perspective of industry and stock selection, pay attention to the increase of northward capital’s holdings of more consumer, financial and other value blue chips, and actively layout the cross year market. Recently, northbound funds have significantly increased their holdings of a shares, with food and beverage, banking, non bank finance, electronics and household appliances among the top. The northern capital style has been switched to blue chip stocks of consumption, finance and other values. Among the stocks with the highest market value of northern capital increase recently, almost all of them are occupied by white horse blue chips. The growth sectors such as military industry and electrical equipment showed weak performance. The large inflow of northward funds has a positive effect on the market. Historically, the position change of northbound funds is relatively close to the market trend, which has a certain forward-looking and guiding effect on the overall trend of a shares. It is suggested to actively layout the cross-year market and increase the holdings of more consumer, financial and other value blue chips by northward funds. It is suggested to pay attention to industries and companies with large scale of net capital inflow to the north, as well as companies with large proportion of circulation, and choose the appropriate allocation. It is suggested to pay attention to food and beverage, finance, household appliances, medicine and biology, electronics, building materials, new energy, electrical equipment and other sectors.
Risk tip: the global epidemic has deteriorated, the economy has fallen more than expected, and the Sino US trade relations have deteriorated.
