Key investment points:
Key points:
1. Since December, our judgment on the market has changed from cautious to optimistic. The core lies in two changes: first, the policy easing has been further increased, and the second comprehensive RRR reduction in the year marks the establishment of the pattern of external tightening and internal loosening of liquidity; Second, the central economic work conference has set a more positive tone and a clear tone of steady growth. In this environment, the warm winter market is expected to arrive as scheduled, and consumption and growth will still be the main line of market transactions.
2. The liquidity environment has turned loose. The landing of a new round of RRR reduction and structural interest rate reduction marks the formal establishment of the pattern of internal loosening and external tightening of liquidity. Under this environment, the macro-economy is warm and the phased downward trend is slowing down. The direction of subsequent monetary and credit double width is clear. Due to the slowdown of inflation pressure in China and the untimely interest rate increase cycle of the Federal Reserve, the next one to two quarters will still be the window period for monetary policy.
3. Market risk appetite is expected to be further improved. First, the central economic work conference will set a more positive tone, and the aggregate policy is expected to exert force, so as to maintain stable growth with stable policies and promote stable expectations with stable growth; Second, major overseas risks have been mitigated, the new variant virus will not reverse the direction of normalization of the global epidemic, and US inflation is high, but it has not exceeded market expectations; Third, under the background of continuous appreciation of RMB, the inflow of foreign capital into A-Shares increased significantly.
4. The warm winter market first promotes consumption. First, the current convergence trend of ppi-cpi is determined; Second, since October, the tide of price increase in the consumer sector has continued to spread, and there is clear room for the repair of consumer stock performance and valuation; Third, the expression of policies to expand domestic demand has increased significantly since the second half of the year, and intensive measures in many fields have been introduced to support the recovery of China’s consumption. The consumption field focuses on optional consumption, such as automobiles, auto parts, small household appliances, and mandatory consumption, such as food and beverage, medicine, agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery.
5. The warm winter market gives consideration to growth. On the premise of no directional change in policy and market, the warm winter market will continue the dominant style in the early stage, and the growth is still expected to continue to lead. The high boom growth sector focuses on three clues: first, green development, such as wind power, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, energy storage and circular economy; second, high-end manufacturing, such as semiconductors, national defense and military industry; third, digital economy, big data, cloud computing, Internet of things, etc
