The "30.60" goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization and its related industrial sectors under the background are undoubtedly one of the areas with the highest attention in the capital market in 2021. We believe that in the future, the carbon neutralization industry will continue to be supported by policies, and each subdivision direction has large growth space, which is an area worthy of long-term attention and layout.
Energy production: the photovoltaic industry chain will benefit from overseas business expansion and the increase of China's installed capacity; The wind power industry chain will benefit from the needs of new installation, replacement of old machines and overseas markets, and offshore wind power is the key direction; At present, hydrogen energy is strongly supported by policies. Hydrogen production from by-product gas, hydrogen fuel cell and hydrogen metallurgy are all worthy of attention. Considering the current situation of nuclear safety and high external dependence on nuclear fuel, nuclear energy is expected to maintain a steady and rapid development trend. In terms of power infrastructure, the adjustment of energy structure will give birth to the demand for energy storage and UHV construction. Pumped storage is expected to usher in rapid development after the policy solves the problem of cost dredging; Electrochemical energy storage relies mainly on the technical route of lithium battery, which will benefit from the increase of installed capacity and the decrease of lithium battery cost in the future; UHV transmission can not only alleviate the problem of uneven power load among regions, but also improve the consumption range of new energy. In the future, the approval, investment and construction of its lines will be accelerated.
In terms of energy consumption, the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will drive the rapid growth of the whole industrial chain; Automatic driving is one of the effective ways for vehicle energy conservation and emission reduction. There is a broad space for each scene in the future, with a potential scale of more than one trillion; Remanufacturing, as one of the links of green manufacturing, may usher in rapid growth, in which the remanufacturing market of auto parts is the main growth point; The demand for prefabricated buildings will rise rapidly and drive the market demand for PC components and green building technical services.
In terms of green finance, the balance of green loans has been growing in the past year, and the implementation of green finance evaluation scheme and carbon emission reduction support tools will help its development; The issuance scale of green bonds has further increased, the standards are gradually in line with international standards, and the scale of carbon neutral bonds is also expanding; In the field of ESG investment, the number of PRI Signatories in China continues to increase, and the number of ESG funds established exceeds the sum of the past three years, but the scoring system of ESG still needs to be developed; The national carbon market was launched at the beginning, the trading volume fluctuated greatly, the carbon price fell, and it is expected that the volume and price will rise together in the future.
Investment suggestion: the carbon neutralization industry will show sustained high growth and prosperity. Among them, the industrial chains and their subdivided fields such as photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, energy storage, UHV, new energy vehicles, automatic driving, remanufacturing and prefabricated construction are expected to show high-speed growth during the 14th five year plan period. In the short term, the current valuation of photovoltaic, new energy vehicle industry chain and other sectors has been at a high level, and the valuation is low. In the short term, wind power, hydrogen energy, automatic driving, lithium battery and other sectors with rapid growth in the future may have more configuration value.
Risk tips: 1) the macro-economy is falling faster than expected; 2) Repeated outbreaks have slowed economic recovery; 3) Policy changes related to carbon neutralization; 4) Substantial growth in energy supply; 5) The demand for new energy is less than expected.
