Key investment points:
Macro view: 1. There is a trend change in the monetary and fiscal policy of the United States to deal with the epidemic. 2. In the past, the United States hedged the demand impact caused by the epidemic through monetary and fiscal policies, but the supply side impact has shown significant negative externalities and affected the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy. With the development of time and the epidemic, the US economic policy is expected to shift from stimulating demand in the past to stimulating supply recovery and curbing inflation. This new economic policy shift will be verified in this round of global covid-19 epidemic development, and will affect the changes in the global economic structure to a certain extent, which is mainly reflected in the impact of U.S. – driven liquidity and aggregate demand convergence. 2. During the epidemic cycle, China’s economic policy focuses on coping with overseas shocks, and takes this time window to accelerate the adjustment of China’s economic structure. With overseas shocks, especially the gradual weakening of inflation pressure driven by the United States, China’s economic policy will return to the long-term sustainable stability framework.
Market view: 1. Under the background of anti inflation in the United States and steady growth in China, the core asset style is established. China’s core assets have become the best choice for global asset allocation. 2. In the process of restoring stability of China’s real estate, long-term interest rates rise, commodities at the front of the real estate chain rise, and overseas commodities fall in the process of anti inflation in the United States.
Trading strategy: 1. Be optimistic about the CSI 300 index and A50 Index, and pay attention to the risk of beta and small and medium-sized stocks caused by style deviation. 2. 2. Optimistic about heavy foreign stocks; It is a leading company optimistic about food and beverage, medicine, real estate, consumer electronics, computer, machinery, chemical industry and media. 3. Optimistic about the repair of Hong Kong stock Internet Index and the long-term upward trend of Nasdaq 100.
Market resumption: this week, the overall performance of the sector rebounded compared with last week, and the consumption and Financial Styles performed brilliantly. Leisure services, food and beverage and household appliances in primary industries led the increase; Defense and military industry, mining and electrical equipment industries fell significantly. Compared with last week, the valuation of the industry fluctuated more, the valuation of the leisure service industry led the increase, and the valuation of the national defense and military industry led the decline. The PE level of automobile, electrical equipment and food and beverage industry ranks in the forefront of the market, and the valuation level of mining and real estate industry still lags far behind the market.
Index performance: the market fluctuated upward this week, and most of the main indexes rose. All a, CSI 300, CSI 500 and SSE 50 rose by 1.16%, 3.14%, 0.06% and 4.10% respectively; Gem index and Kechuang 50 fell by 0.34% and 0.63% respectively.
Style performance: large cap stocks led the rise, and the medium valuation continued to make efforts. This week, large cap stocks, medium cap stocks and small cap stocks rose 3.58%, 2.19% and 0.15% respectively. In the valuation sector, the medium valuation sector continued to lead the rise with 3.54%; The undervalued sector rose 2.47%; The overvalued sector fell 1.23%.
Short term market sentiment: compared with last week, the average daily turnover of most major indexes increased. In addition to the gem index, the turnover rate of major indexes increased month on month. Northward capital flows strongly into the A-share market. During the week, land stock connect mainly flowed into the industry, followed by food and beverage, non bank finance and banking; The net outflow of construction materials, communications and utilities was large. The number of shares held by the capital industry in the North increased on a weekly basis. The top three were banks, architectural decoration and non bank finance; The first three are electrical equipment, utilities and communication. The transaction volume of the two financial institutions increased slightly, and the net financing inflow narrowed. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF option increased by 1.98 percentage points, and the current value is 16.29%; The current value of the S & P 500 volatility (VIX) index is 18.69, down 11.98 from the previous value.
Long term market sentiment: the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend – 10-year Treasury bonds is currently – 0.78%, down 0.03 percentage points month on month, above the average and in the historical quantile of 62%; The current value of A-share implied equity risk premium (ERP) is 2.13%, down 0.04 percentage points month on month, in the historical quantile of 59%. The A-share risk premium continues the downward trend of last week, and the market risk appetite continues to rise. Compared with last week, the ERP of various popular sectors has not changed much.
Risk tips:
Economic downside risk; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; Overseas economic recovery is weaker than expected; Big country game Risk
