research conclusion
Event: the 2021 central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. The meeting summarized the economic work in 2021, analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work in 2022. We believe that the central economic work conference once again stressed the determination to stabilize growth; It is also a continuation of the tone of "steady growth" of the economic work conference of the Political Bureau on December 6. For a shares, "steady growth" will be one of the important investment mainlines from the end of the year to Q1 in 22 years. Specifically:
This year, the central government proposed for the first time that the economy is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation. From the perspective of policy response, it also covers the three aspects of demand, supply and expectation. (1) In terms of stabilizing expectations, we will continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and "wide credit" and "wide currency" are expected to be carried out at the same time. In terms of fiscal policy, "moderately ahead of schedule infrastructure investment" means that cross year and cross cycle infrastructure development can be expected; and "Guiding financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development" means that liquidity is reasonable and abundant, and the tone remains unchanged. (2) In terms of guiding demand, we mainly focus on unblocking the national economic cycle. Combined with the announcement of the Ministry of Commerce on December 10, we will focus on promoting the expansion of consumption of key commodities. We believe that with the macroeconomic repair, consumer demand is expected to rise steadily. (3) in terms of ensuring supply, energy is a major pressure on enterprise costs at present, so Based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, pay close attention to the clean and efficient utilization of coal, increase the consumption capacity of new energy, and promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy ", the growth rate of superimposed PPI gradually drops, which is expected to reduce the cost of enterprises.
The policy orientation of supporting the "virtuous circle and healthy development" of real estate has been emphasized again. As one of the most key variables affecting China's economy, the real estate industry is expected to further benefit from the policy tone of "steady growth". With the continuous confirmation of short-term real estate care policies, domestic real estate sales, land purchase, financing and other behaviors have gradually returned to normal. Some Chinese real estate enterprises have begun to repurchase overseas bonds, and some investors have also begun to buy US dollar bonds of Chinese real estate enterprises.
Supporting science and technology and the "double carbon" strategy remains the key direction of economic structure transformation and upgrading. In terms of science and technology, more emphasis is placed on: (1) long-term planning for basic research; (2) cultivating specialized and special new enterprises has become an important starting point for improving the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry. In the field of double carbon, on the one hand, it emphasizes tackling key problems of green and low-carbon technology, on the other hand, "it is impossible to accomplish one service". The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable replacement of new energy.
In terms of the keynote of capital market policy, the central economic work conference stressed that the supervision of capital should "prevent savage growth". This means that the supervision of capital is not over and may be further diversified in form. In addition, the implementation of the comprehensive registration system also means higher requirements for the dimension and breadth of capital supervision.
From the perspective of a shares, "stable growth" will be one of the important investment mainlines from the end of the year to Q1 of 22. The A-share industry sector may continue the differentiated structural market, and the configuration needs to be more balanced and keep dynamic tracking. The main line industries of "steady growth", such as financial real estate, building materials, household appliances, light industry, construction machinery, food and social services, have the biggest advantage that the valuation and stock price are low + favorable policies + relatively high roe. The disadvantage is that the long-term EPS growth is still uncertain at present; In the direction of science and technology and new energy, the biggest advantage lies in the high certainty of long-term EPS growth + long-term policy encouragement, and the disadvantage lies in the relatively high valuation and concentrated institutional positions, which is prone to high stock price fluctuations.
Risk tips:
1、 The macroeconomic recovery was less than expected
2、 There is a shift in capital market policy
3、 The epidemic spread again
