Anxin research has jointly interpreted the central economic work conference with more than 10 teams in total and relevant industries, hoping to bring you the most comprehensive, objective and profound investment suggestions in the whole market.
The central economic work conference is the highest level macro conference at the end of the year and an important observation window for policy changes. The policy attitude of the important meeting largely determines the upward space of the follow-up "Spring Festival agitation" / "cross year market". From the situation in recent years, the more positive policy attitude was "striving to maintain stable economic growth" at the end of 14, "resolving real estate inventory" and "reducing financing costs" at the end of 15, "stabilizing total demand" at the end of 18 and "six stabilities" at the end of 19. The increases in the spring market of Wande a in the next year were 55%, 17%, 36% and 11% respectively; The relatively neutral policy attitude of "accumulation of financial risks" at the end of 16, "adjusting the currency gate" at the end of 17, "controlling macro leverage" at the end of 17 and "making good use of valuable time window and not making sharp turns" at the end of 20 only increased by 7%, 6% and 7% respectively in the following year.
From this point of view, the policy signals released by the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee are more positive, clarify the direction and time of policy force, emphasize the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy, and require the policy force to move forward appropriately, reflecting the urgency of "stabilizing growth"; In terms of monetary policy, the expression of "maintaining the basic stability of macro leverage ratio" was deleted, and financial support for small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development continued to be emphasized; Clearly put forward the "full implementation of the stock issuance registration system" to further improve the reform of the capital market; In addition, a profound reflection on the "Sports" real estate regulation and carbon neutralization policies will help boost market confidence and improve market fundamentals. In addition, overseas, I see that the market's expectation of Omicron variant virus has become clearer, the risk appetite in overseas markets has rebounded recently, and the conditions of "Spring Festival agitation" / "cross year market" of A-Shares are more solid and sufficient.
From the perspective of configuration, with the strengthening of the expectation of "stable growth", it is expected that the market style will still be biased towards the value style of undervaluation in the short term. The market will give priority to large finance and large consumption, and there will be periodic revaluation opportunities. By the first quarter of next year, it will show the characteristics of "building a platform for value and singing for growth".
