1、 Overseas markets: the easing of concerns about mutant strains boosted international oil prices. The White House’s chief medical adviser, fudge, said that the Omicron strain may not be as serious as expected. According to the reports of cases tracked in South Africa, the infection cases and deaths of Omicron strain are less than delta strain; In terms of exchange rate, the central bank decided to raise the foreign exchange reserve ratio of financial institutions this week in order to curb the rapid rise of the RMB exchange rate. The RMB exchange rate showed a “V” trend this week; The Federal Reserve will hold a FOMC meeting next week. At present, it is more likely to accelerate the reduction, which is also in line with market expectations.
2、 Economic development is facing triple pressure, and the policy tone next year is more “stable”. The central economic work conference pointed out that China’s economic development is facing the triple pressure of “shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation”. For some time in the future, it will mainly be “stable growth”. In particular, it is proposed that “the policy force will be moderately advanced” next year, and the “front” of macro policy next year will be confirmed. In terms of industrial policy, compared with the previous excessively strict real estate policy, the current real estate policy is still in fine-tuning. Under the regulation goal of urban implementation, some urban real estate policies will be adjusted; Science and technology, new energy industry chain and new infrastructure (digital economy and green industry) will still be the direction of key policy support; it is expected to continue the model of promoting standardized development for Internet platform economy, “education and training” and other industries.
3、 The “loose” signal of monetary policy is obvious, and the credit is moderately wide. At the level of monetary policy, the central economic conference mentioned that “prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity”, and the tone is relatively “loose”. In terms of financing, financial institutions will be guided to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development, and promote the financing increment, expansion and price reduction of small, medium and micro enterprises. From the recent operation of monetary policy, the “loose” signal and “steady growth” signal that the central bank takes care of reasonable and abundant liquidity have been obvious. For example, on December 6, the central bank decided to comprehensively reduce the reserve requirement; On December 7, the refinancing interest rate for supporting agriculture and small businesses was lowered; At the price level, dr007 remained fluctuating near the policy interest rate, indicating that liquidity is still loose.
4、 Investment strategy: the policy tone is “stable”, and the cross-year market of A-Shares continues. “Stability” is the key word of the central economic work conference. Against the background of the global epidemic and the multiple pressures on China’s economy, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, properly advance the policy force, smooth the economic fluctuations before the 20th National Congress, and keep the economic operation within a reasonable range. In the current vacuum period of corporate earnings data, “loose liquidity + steady growth policy” has become the driving force for A-Shares to interpret the “cross year market”. The follow-up counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies support the economy, and the market risk appetite is expected to rise. Maintain our bullish view on a shares, and the structural market of A-Shares continues. In terms of December alone, A-Shares are expected to continue the cross-year market, and do not catch up or fall on the plate / individual stocks. In terms of industry configuration, Three main investment lines: 1) new energy (vehicles) (smart grid, energy storage, wind energy, photovoltaic, etc.); 2) related to consumption upgrading, food, beverage, medicine, etc.; 3) the “real estate” sector benefiting from the marginal change of “urban implementation” real estate policy, focusing on central enterprises with increased market share. The theme investment focuses on: “double carbon, military industry, consumption upgrading”, etc.
Risk tips: repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets; The game between China and the United States has intensified.
