Investment main line contained in the central economic work conference
The central economic work conference further pointed out the policy direction for next year. At the aggregate level, the meeting further clarified the main problems faced by China’s economic development, as well as the “stability first” and “seeking progress in stability” in economic work next year, and the policy may be more active. At the structural level, the discussion on some industrial directions in the economic work conference may be more worthy of attention, including specialization and innovation, consumption return, carbon peak carbon neutralization, antitrust, etc.
1. Specialized and new. The meeting mentioned “launching a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects to stimulate the emergence of a large number of” specialized, special and new “enterprises”. The system design of the Beijing stock exchange is more conducive to the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises. In the future, more enterprises may be listed on the Beijing stock exchange, and the attention and transaction heat of the Beijing stock exchange may further rise.
2. Consumption returns. Shrinking demand is one of the economic pressures facing China. At this meeting, the support for the economy and small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to improve the employment and income of residents. The promotion of common prosperity and “no speculation in housing and housing” is also conducive to expanding consumption, superimposing the promotion of consumption stimulating policies. Next year, we may see the return of consumption boom.
3. Carbon peak carbon neutralization. Compared with the emphasis on the goal last year, this year not only emphasizes the long-term nature of the goal and the goal, but also emphasizes China’s national conditions dominated by coal. It is expected that the promotion of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization will be more scientific in the future, and the new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control, which will further encourage the development of green power.
4. Antitrust. Compared with last year’s “strengthening antitrust and preventing disorderly expansion of capital”, this year “we should correctly understand and grasp the characteristics and behavior laws of capital”, and the expression is more mild. We should set a “traffic light” for capital, which may mean that next year’s supervision will enter the institutionalization stage, and the previously suppressed risk preference may be repaired.
The central economic work conference may become a catalyst for the “cross year agitation” market
The central economic work conference may become a catalyst for this round of “cross year agitation” market. Historically, important meetings and nodes with loose liquidity are often the starting point of the restless market. This week’s central bank RRR reduction, Politburo meeting and central economic work meeting have established the policy direction, and the market expectations have changed accordingly, which may become the catalyst of this round of restless market.
The new year’s restless market or the market worthy of attention next year. Historically, the “spring agitation” market has had a significant impact on the performance of the whole year. Since 2010, the increase of Shanghai stock index during the “spring agitation” period has been higher than that of the whole year. Looking forward to next year, under the downward pressure of economy and profit, the overall performance of the market may be relatively weak. Therefore, whether we can grasp this round of cross-year restless market may also have a significant impact on the annual yield of next year.
Under the cross year restless market, the configuration pays attention to two main lines
Combined with the central economic work conference, macroeconomic background and historical experience, it is suggested to pay attention to the two main lines of consumption and steady growth.
Main line 1: consumption sector. In recent years, consumption has become the main force of the “restless spring” market. Under the downward pressure of the economy, the performance advantages of the consumption sector will be highlighted, and the market style is expected to return. In the future, more consumption stimulus policies may be introduced. It is suggested to pay attention to food and beverage, medicine, household appliances, automobiles, etc.
Main line 2: steady growth plate. With regard to financial development, traditional infrastructure will still be an important starting point for stabilizing the economy. It is suggested to pay attention to building materials, and new infrastructure such as wind power and photovoltaic is also expected to gradually become a key field for steady growth.
Risk analysis: the level of economic growth was significantly lower than expected, and the covid-19 epidemic worsened than expected.
