1. Central economic work conference: appropriate rectification in tactics + maintaining concentration in strategy
A major focus of the tone setting meeting at the end of the year is the appropriate correction of the preliminary work: 1) correction is based on the objective environment of the sudden increase in the pressure of stable growth, and the balance is slightly inclined to "stability" between "stability" and "change". 2) Deviation correction is the embodiment of twists and turns and periodicity in the process of long-term strategy implementation. It is a targeted correction to the phenomenon of "one size fits all" in the process of policy implementation. 3) In the long run, rectifying deviation does not mean reversing. In terms of investment, it is reflected in the superposition of "tactical flexible adjustment (trading opportunities)" and "strategic concentration (trend opportunities)".
The meeting focused on the trade-off between the three groups of policy objectives: 1) stability vs mine demolition of the old economy. This time, concerns about downward pressure have increased significantly, and a relatively strong policy force signal has been released in the general tone, fiscal policy and investment fields. The policy base of real estate and hidden debt has been further established, but it is intended to prevent systemic risks and avoid the impact of the industrial chain. It still adheres to the bottom line for real estate speculation and local hidden debt. 2) Energy conservation and carbon neutralization. On the one hand, we should focus on coal and face up to the current situation that the proportion of new energy is still low and the supply is unstable; On the other hand, adjust the dual control caliber to avoid energy consumption becoming a constraint on economic growth. 3) Cake making and cake sharing. Since the general secretary put forward the "common prosperity", he has made great efforts to supervise many fields such as real estate, education and training and the Internet. This time, he emphasized that bigger cake and sub cake are not antagonistic, and total growth is the premise of common prosperity.
In addition to periodic correction, maintain a high degree of concentration on the long-term strategy: 1) build a country through science and technology, and the elements of science, technology and data are the starting point for steady growth. A lot of space is devoted to the work of science and innovation, such as putting forward the "three-year action plan for the implementation of scientific and technological system reform and formulating and implementing the ten-year plan for basic research". 2) Unswervingly develop new energy, establish first and then break down. At the same time, it is also the key direction of "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment". In the long run, the construction of new energy industry chain has the dual mission of steady growth and energy transformation. 3) Build a circular economy system, reverse the extensive economic model of the past 40 years, and promote the transformation to an intensive economic model.
2. Market view: the restless main line in spring is likely to return to the direction of high-end manufacturing
(1) In November, although social finance was slightly lower than expected (medium and long-term corporate loans were poor), according to the central bank's monetary policy implementation report, the Political Bureau and the central economic work conference, social finance established an upward inflection point, corresponding to the upward credit cycle next year, the improvement of residual liquidity and the overall valuation of a shares.
(2) The central bank raised the foreign exchange reserve ratio, similar to June 2, which may lead to the depreciation of the exchange rate stage.
(3) Credit expansion, profit contraction and index shock pattern in the next half year. Near the middle of 22 years, there may be index opportunities. At that time, credit expansion will increase profits.
(4) Industry and style: the signal of steady growth in the past week is relatively clear, the real estate base has gradually become a consensus, and the undervalued direction has performed well, but the capital is biased towards the stock game, and the capital flows out rapidly in several directions of high-end manufacturing. Looking ahead, before and after the agitation in the spring of January, the incremental capital may be a good start for public offering, and the probability of corresponding explosive funds is a high-end system with good performance At the same time, in the window period of annual report forecast, the direction of high prosperity is still focused on these high-end manufacturing. Moreover, according to the central leadership's interpretation of the central economic work conference on "moderately advanced infrastructure construction", we will increase investment in the fields of pollution reduction, carbon reduction, new energy, new technology and Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) clusters. It is expected that the policy direction will also support the new infrastructure.
Therefore, the current adjustment of high-end manufacturing direction is likely to open up space for agitation in spring.
Risk tip: virus mutation and repeated global epidemics, inflation forced the Federal Reserve to speed up the pace of taper, and intensified trade and science and technology friction
