Liquidity: the growth difference between M1 and M2 ended, deviated negatively for 6 consecutive months, and converged slightly in November. (1) In November, BCI’s financing environment index decreased by 0.83% to 43.94 month on month (MOM), and the high probability of periodic high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long-term growth of gem index; (2) there is a strong positive correlation between M1 and M2 growth difference and Shanghai Stock Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 5.5 percentage points in November 2021, mom + 0.4 percentage points.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity has dropped to the lowest level in nearly 6 years. (1) Price changes this week: screw thread – 0.21%, cement price index – 2.02%, rubber – 1.85%, coke + 0.00%, coking coal + 0.00%, iron ore + 5.11%; (2) the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rates this week were -0.68pct, -1.60pct, -4.00pct and + 1.28pct respectively, of which the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased to 74.12%, the lowest level in six years.
Real estate completion chain: the price of flat glass fell sharply month on month. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass this week were + 0.00% and – 3.06% month on month respectively; (2) the profit of titanium dioxide this week was 2471 yuan / ton, month on month -0.88%; and (3) the price of PVC was 9458.00 yuan / ton, month on month -3.49%.
Industrial chain: the operating rate of semi steel tire is at the second low level in the same period of 6 years. (1) Price performance of main bulk commodities: cold rolling, copper and aluminum prices changed by – 0.36%, + 0.03%, + 0.48% month on month, corresponding to gross profit changes of – 6.99%, + 0.25%, + 45.68%; (2) price performance of other varieties: molybdenum concentrate and tungsten concentrate prices increased by + 7.32%, + 0.00% month on month to 2200 and 105500 yuan / ton respectively; (3) The operating rate of semi steel tire was 63.77%, with a month on month ratio of + 1.60 percentage points, which was the second low level in the same period of 6 years, only 62.8% higher than that in the same period of 2019.
Export chain: US PMI new order index rebounded to 61.5% in November. (1) China’s export container freight rate index CCFI composite index was 3238.35 points this week, with a month on month ratio of + 1.23%; (2) the utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States was 81.90% this week, with a month on month ratio of – 1.30 percentage points, which continued to decline; (3) in November 2021, the value of new orders of PMI in the United States was 61.50%, with a month on month ratio of + 1.70 percentage points.
Breakdown varieties: the profit of electrolytic aluminum rebounded to 1987 yuan / ton. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 24000 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week; (2) nickel: the price this week is 148650 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 1.00%; (3) stainless steel: the price this week is 17900 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 4.28%; (4) prebaked anode: the price this week is 5450 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 1.36%, and the profit is 492 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 18760 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.48%, and the estimated profit is 1986.9 yuan / ton (excluding tax), with a month on month ratio of + 45.68%); (6) the gross profit of alumina is 897 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 11.54%); (7) power coal: the price of this week is 1090 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%, which is flat.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread remains positive. (1) The price ratio of screw thread and iron ore was 6.86 this week; (2) the price difference between hot coil and screw thread steel was 100 yuan / ton, maintaining a positive value; (3) the price difference between Shanghai cold rolled steel and screw thread steel was 760 yuan / ton this Friday, a month on month comparison of – 10 yuan / ton; (4) the price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled electrolytic nickel was 0.13, at a 10-year low. (5) spiral screw (mainly used in real estate) and screw thread steel The price difference (mainly used in infrastructure) reached 300 yuan / ton on Friday, with a chain comparison of – 6.25%.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index is + 3.14%, and the best performance of the cyclical sector is shipping (+ 5.88%). The quantile of Pb ratio of steel and industrial metals to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets (since 2015) is 25.75% and 48.12% respectively; the ratio of Pb in steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.61, and the highest value since 2012 is 0.9 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: it is necessary to pay close attention to the industry investment benefiting from the shift from energy consumption control to carbon emission control. The Ministry of industry and information technology said that it has prepared the implementation plan for carbon peak in key industries such as iron and steel and nonferrous metals. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subjects: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Shandong Iron And Steel Company Ltd(600022) , Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited(601005) .
Risk prompt: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; The risk of poor management of the company.
