Import and export data: factors such as external demand resilience and price rise supported the record import and export volume, but the rising base led to a decline in growth. In November, China’s exports increased by 22% and imports by 31.7% year-on-year. The import and export volume reached a record high. With the base rising in the same period last year, the growth rate slowed down, but it still exceeded market expectations. The main reasons for the high increase in exports were: first, the overseas economy continued to recover, the unemployment rate in the United States and other countries continued to decline, and China’s supply could not meet the strong demand, resulting in a large number of imports from other countries; Second, the overall international commodity prices are still high, and the increase in export prices partially offset the decrease in export volume. In December, the year-on-year growth rate of exports is expected to continue to decline.
CPI / PPI: the price of pork and other food promoted the CPI to continue its upward trend year-on-year. The upward trend of upstream raw materials was at the end of a strong crossbow, and the PPI fell from a year-on-year high. CPI returned to the “2 times” year-on-year affected by the rise of pork and other prices. At the same time, the efforts to “ensure supply and stabilize prices” continued to increase, the rise of coal, metals and other raw material prices was curbed, and the rise of PPI fell as scheduled. In November, CPI increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year to 2.3%, and PPI decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 12.9%. In the follow-up, it is expected that CPI will rise in twists and turns, and the surge of PPI has dropped, but the downward speed is still uncertain.
Financial data: the issuance of government bonds and corporate bonds accelerated to support the rebound of social finance increment, the increment of corporate loans was small, and the physical demand was still insufficient under the economic downturn. In November, government bonds were issued intensively, and the issuance of corporate bonds also rebounded after the Yongmei incident last year, which greatly expanded the increment of social finance and reversed the previous continuous decline. The margin of real estate financing policy was relaxed, and the increment of medium and long-term loans to households also reached a new high in nearly eight months. However, the amount of corporate loans was small, and the demand of the real economy was still weak. This year and next, macro policies are easy to loosen but difficult to tighten, the impact of real estate policies has not been fully cleared, the downward pressure on the economy remains unabated, credit relief measures will be introduced one after another, and structural policy tools will still be the key direction.
Capital analysis: this week, the central bank made a net return of 180 billion yuan in the open market, the central bank made a continuous net return, and most of the capital prices rose; Next week, the standard will be fully reduced, and attention will be paid to the continuation of MLF. A total of 230 billion yuan of reverse repo expired in the central bank’s open market this week. The central bank conducted a total of 50 billion yuan of reverse repo this week, so a net return of 180 billion yuan this week. Although the central bank announced the RRR reduction on Monday, the capital market continued to return net this week, and most of the capital prices rose. There is still some uncertainty on the capital in December. The central bank announced on Monday that it would comprehensively reduce the reserve requirement on December 15, releasing about 1.2 trillion yuan of funds. Next week, 950 billion yuan of MLF will expire. It is expected that the central bank will continue the reduction. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has maintained an overall balance in terms of capital, but we still need to pay attention to the re occurrence of capital tightening during the inter month period in November.
Interest rate debt: for the bond market, there is still downward space in the short term, and it should be cautious in the medium term. The central economic work conference pointed out that the economy is facing the triple pressure of “shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation”, the responsibility for steady growth is compacted, the policy rhythm is clear, and the policy force is appropriate. In the short term, monetary policy is stable and loose, and the effect of fundamentals on steady growth needs to be observed. Then the bond market adjustment is an opportunity; In the medium term, the central economic work conference set the tone for steady growth of policies, and the decline in the policy combination of monetary and fiscal looseness must have taken the lead. For some time in the future, the bond market will face a market environment in which fiscal power, real estate policy correction and wide credit will gradually appear, blocking the space for interest rates.
Convertible bonds: the equity markets fluctuated. The convertible bond market fluctuated and fell, and the valuation was generally compressed. Attention was paid to double low individual bonds, new energy, consumer electronics, auto parts, food and beverage, medicine, communications, etc. This week, the equity markets fluctuated, the convertible bond market fluctuated and fell, and the overall performance was poor. Nearly 80% of the convertible bonds recorded a downward trend. The medium price, high rating and large-scale convertible bonds performed well. This week, the convertible bond market was significantly adjusted and the valuation was generally compressed. The price and valuation of convertible bonds are at historically high values. Defense first is the core idea, focusing on double low individual bonds, new energy, consumer electronics, auto parts, food and beverage, medicine, communication, etc.
Equity market: many positive factors stimulated the rise of large consumption, and the capital increased significantly in the north. This week, the Shanghai index rose unilaterally after the high opening and falling, and the weekly line closed at the positive line, and the theme investment continued to be strong. This week, the Shanghai stock index closed at 3666.35 points, and the market “high-low switching” effect was obvious. Interpretation of the central economic work conference, long-term good for green power and energy storage; Interpretation of the central economic work conference, the expectation of steady growth drives the rise of banks; The national development and Reform Commission promotes the implementation of subsidies for furniture and home decoration to the countryside and pays attention to investment opportunities in the furniture sector; Promoting the green and high-quality development of new infrastructure such as data center and 5g was issued, and the industry pattern is expected to be optimized. Looking forward to the future, with the gradual clarity of the policy bottom, we believe that A-Shares have the basic conditions for central lifting, and the current A-share value style has the basis of outperforming at different stages. In terms of strategy, control the overall position and tap the relevant stocks with continuous outbreak of fundamentals. In terms of industry configuration, under the violent fluctuations in the peripheral market, the mandatory consumption has the advantage of “advancing and retreating”. The worry about new virus variants may strengthen the configuration value of the mandatory consumption sector.
Gold: with the easing of Omicron panic and the year-on-year high increase of us CPI, gold prices are planning to rebound. After three weeks of decline, the gold price began to stabilize this week, because the market panic caused by Omicron in the early stage has begun to ease gradually. In addition, after the record high price data of Meigong, the Fed accelerated the expected warming of taper. On the one hand, with the release of more and more favorable information, Omicron’s follow-up will not have a significant impact on the price of gold. On the other hand, the mismatch between supply and demand leads to the threat of high inflation in all countries around the world. The practical requirements of the central bank to accelerate the tightening of easing policies continue to increase, which will provide support for the price of gold, and the price of gold will rise in the short term or moderately.
Crude oil: boosted by the easing of Omicron’s concerns and the difficulty of solving the Iranian nuclear issue, the oil price rose sharply than expected. International crude oil fell for six consecutive days and rose sharply at the end of this week, mainly due to the cooling of market concerns about Omicron and the poor progress of us Iran negotiations. The dominant power of international oil price is basically in the hands of OPEC +, which can cope with the sharp decline of oil price by coordinating production reduction. In addition, the impact of Omicron is basically eliminated, and oil price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. However, considering that the current oil price is at a relatively high level, it is more likely that oil price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.
Black industrial chain: the policy is loose, the demand of downstream industries warms up, the decline of rebar price narrows, and the price of double coke rises sharply. With the continuous economic downturn, there has been a marginal relaxation signal in the real estate policy recently, and the high-level policy meeting has also been blowing warm air. The market believes that the demand of downstream industries will pick up, and the decline of rebar futures price has narrowed significantly. At the same time, boosted by the expected resumption of production of downstream steel mills, the market is brewing a counterattack after the superposition of oversold, and the price of double coke also rose sharply. In the follow-up, the supply and demand of black goods have improved as a whole, and after a period of significant adjustment, the market is more likely to rebound.
Analysis on the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar: US inflation hit a high again in November; The people’s Bank of China raised the reserve for foreign exchange deposits. The US dollar index fell slightly this week: Although the US economic data in November were optimistic, the market was still worried about Omicron. In addition, although the US inflation in November was high, it did not exceed expectations and did not further support the US dollar index. This week, the people’s Bank of China announced that it would raise the foreign deposit reserve by 2 percentage points, which may limit the rise of the RMB exchange rate in the future. The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve in December will be held next week to focus on the shift of US monetary policy.
Risk tip: monetary policy tightened more than expected, and credit risk broke out intensively
