2021: a "bear market" masked by the long-term main line of "energy transformation"
In 2021, the overall economic growth slowed down, credit conditions tightened and macro leverage ratio continued to decline, which has exceeded that in 2018. In such an environment, the whole market does not seem to have fallen, but the valuation since the epidemic has been significantly compressed and returned to the level at the end of 2019. When cycle (non supply constraints) and growth After excluding (non new energy), the whole market does not rise, and the style of value / growth is not obvious. The internal logic of active energy transformation is that the whole society's capital expenditure flows into the new energy system under the joint action of policy guidance and industrial expected changes. The result is that the two attributes similar to the 2005-2007 cycle stocks are divided into two, and the traditional industries enjoy high gross profit While emerging industries enjoy high capacity growth. Under this trend, the profit contribution of the traditional cycle and the valuation contribution of new energy support the whole market and offset the downward pressure of the economic cycle. In this context, market participants have faced great environmental changes, large market capitalization investors in the whole market have lost at a historical level, and the long-term position steady-state structure of institutional investors has been broken. Unlike some investors who believe that they are standing at the end of the three-year bull market, we believe that they are standing in the market after a year's short cycle adjustment: the decline of leverage, the compression of valuation and the decline of congestion.
The short-term downward trend of demand is close to the inflection point, but the supply constraint has not been lifted
Since May, the decline of real estate has suppressed the performance of relevant sectors of the total, but the revaluation of cyclical stocks is different from the previous economic cycles. However, further concerns about demand after October also led the market down by the cyclical sector. Looking forward to 2022, a large number of delayed construction and delayed completion since 2017 need to be replenished, and the financing restrictions in 2021 have delayed this process to a certain extent, The satisfaction of normal capital needs will enable real estate investment in 2022 (except for land purchase) maintain a growth rate of 5.6% to 9.8%. Under the neutral assumption, the demand of the real estate chain will still grow positively, but pull down slightly, up to 1.8 percentage points. The improvement of real estate financing demand will also improve its drag on credit expansion this year. On the other hand, the investment in Rural Revitalization and new energy transformation will form a new demand on the basis of the stabilization of the traditional engine Pull. As demand stabilized and rebounded, The pressure at the supply end faces the outside and the inside (power shortage) two major constraints. Externally, the gradual repair of transportation conditions in 2022 will ease overseas inflation pressure and put pressure on China's inflation; the carbon price gap between China and foreign countries and the energy price difference per unit heat will restrict China's ability to lower the price of energy and high-energy consuming raw materials. Internally, power supply will remain a weak link in 2022. Inflation bomb Compared with the supply led in 2021, the driving logic will become the superposition of demand recovery and supply constraints, and the "metal decade top" will be the expected trap.
Inflationary bull market: don't worry, the best time is actually the whole year
Due to the high dividend rate in 2021, the roe of all A-Shares will remain upward while the profit growth rate drops to 6.5% in 2022, which is expected to break through the long-term trend. After the credit tightening and valuation compression in 2021, due to the loose policy, the demand recovery will resonate with the economic transformation. We calculate that the expected yield of Shanghai Composite Index in 2022 will reach 14.9%. However, it should be emphasized that the real opportunity of A-Shares is not the current "cross year market". The expectation of overseas interest rate increase and the fragility of trading structure make it more structure oriented at present, and the full year and comprehensive market in 2022 is more worthy of expectation.
Allocation idea: transformation is the reconciliation of old and new economies
Since 2021, a large number of industries ROE and ROIC have broken through their downward trend for a long time. They will continue in 2022. This phenomenon has appeared in traditional industries represented by Baijiu after 2016. Future demand will be more easily accepted by market investors than simply supply contraction, and the value of traditional industries will be reassessed, and cyclical stocks will outperform commodities. In emerging industries, focusing on new energy power generation side, power infrastructure, carbon reduction in traditional industries and automobile intelligence are their main directions. There are three main lines configured in the industry: (1) configuration of traditional industries: steel, banking, securities companies, non-ferrous metals (copper, gold, aluminum), building materials, crude oil chain (oil service engineering, oil transportation), coal; (2) new energy power generation side (photovoltaic modules, power operators), power infrastructure (wires and cables, smart grid), smart cars and carbon reduction in traditional industries; (3) Rural Revitalization will become the most important new growth clue after 2022 (agricultural machinery, seed industry, environmental protection and county consumption).
Risk tips:
Uncertainty of covid-19 epidemic situation; The implementation of counter cyclical policy is less than expected; Measurement error
