The people’s Bank of China has decided to increase the foreign exchange reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points from December 15, that is, the foreign exchange reserve ratio will be increased from the current 7% to 9%. That week, the weekly net inflow of funds going north hit a record high of 48.834 billion yuan.
Key investment points
Why raise the foreign exchange reserve ratio again?
Recently, the RMB exchange rate has strengthened unilaterally and a large number of foreign capital has poured in. In order to guide the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate and avoid the expectation of unilateral appreciation, the central bank announced on December 9 to increase the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio by 2 percentage points, from 7% to 9%, and tighten the liquidity of the foreign exchange market, marking the inflection point of RMB appreciation.
What is the impact on the funds for going north?
This round of raising the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio is the second time in the year. The first time is on May 31 this year. Combined with the performance of the last round of policy adjustment, we judge that the net inflow of funds from northbound will be subject to the increase of the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio in the short term, but the long-term net inflow trend will not be affected.
A-share market style began to switch?
At the end of May, the market faced the “Maoning switch”, and the funds going north ended the allocation of the “Maoning index” in stages with a substantial net inflow. Now near the end of the year, the risk appetite of institutional funds has decreased, and the “Ning portfolio” is now divided. The bank’s risk aversion attribute is prominent. Food and beverage and non bank finance are about to usher in a new year’s market. The superposition of the steady growth signal of the central economic work conference will help boost foreign investment sentiment. The follow-up capital going north may continue to flow into the traditional blue chip, and the value blue chip market represented by food and beverage and finance is expected.
Will the food and beverage outlet rise again or the ending repeat?
The food and beverage industry ranks first in the two largest net inflow, and the net inflow is more than 10 billion 849 million billion yuan, of which only the net inflow of Baijiu industry is as high as 10 billion 47 million yuan. Unlike the previous large net inflow, the huge net inflow of Baijiu capital will become a starting point.
Risk statement
(1) Covid-19 epidemic impact (2) the policy was less than expected (3) the economy accelerated downward
