Key investment points
The central economic work conference clearly put forward that we should "hold the bottom line of people's livelihood" and that employment is the greatest livelihood.
At present, the mainstream employment indicators include the number of new urban employment and the urban survey unemployment rate, but there are some disputes.
The employment situation needs to be calculated through other indicators. After the impact of the epidemic last year, we tried to use the domestic power consumption indicators of urban and rural residents to calculate the number of employment, but at present, the economy is running to normal, and it is difficult to achieve the effect by using the residential power consumption indicators.
Try to use the number of Chinese Internet users and average online time to calculate the job saturation.
Among them, it is assumed that Internet users' Internet habits will not change near the reporting period.
We calculated the change of total online time under the same number of Internet users in the near reporting period and found several conclusions:
First, before 2020, the total length of Internet access will increase at a low speed, or depict the changes in Internet habits to a certain extent;
Second, the impact of the epidemic in 2020 led to a significant jump in the total length of Internet access, which may be due to two reasons: one is the decline of workload, the other is the change of working mode, and the substitution of online office for offline office;
Third, work and production will resume in June 2020, which is reflected in the significant reduction of the total online time and the increase of work saturation;
Fourth, in December 2020, the offline economy is still in the recovery channel, but the momentum slows down gradually and the work saturation continues to increase;
Fifth, the online hours jumped again in June 2021. We think it is difficult to explain it by the change of working mode. It is more inclined to the decrease of working saturation, resulting in the increase of online hours;
Sixth, by calculating the job saturation index under the same caliber of the number of Internet users. At present, there is still a distance from the reporting period in March 2020. There is no need to worry too much, but it is also close to the level in June 2020.
Seventh, lower job saturation, reduced workload or reduced working population make it difficult to split. However, no matter which reason, it will have pressure and impact on the subsequent new employment, so we need to make policy reserves.
Risk prompt event: 1. Policy change risk; 2. The change of online time data is affected by many factors, which is solely attributed to the change of employment situation, and there is a risk of deviation from the actual situation. The above judgment is for reference only.
