Main views of overseas markets in a week: affected by geographical issues, the US stock market remained volatile this week. At this stage, the US stock market risk still continues the trend of further transmission to value stocks. In particular, it should be noted that although there has been a certain correction in US financial stocks at this stage, the price to book ratio is still at a historically high level; Moreover, the growth of many US financial stocks from the end of March 2020 to the beginning of this year has exceeded the cumulative growth of more than three years before the subprime mortgage crisis. It is expected that US financial stocks will still be under further pressure for some time in the future, which will still pose a certain pressure on the overall US stock market. At this stage, Schiller's P / E ratio is 35.89, significantly exceeding the historical average of 16.92 and the median of 15.87. As the valuation of the US stock market is still high at this stage and the Federal Reserve is still in the early stage of tightening monetary liquidity, it is expected that the US stock market has not stabilized at this stage. From the perspective of the European market, affected by the linkage of the US NASDAQ index, it is expected that the German DAX index will have a further correction. Affected by the linkage of the US S & P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial index, it is expected that the probability of European indexes such as France CAC40 and Britain FTSE 100 will be further corrected. As the Fed's liquidity is in the early stage of tightening, it is expected that there will still be a more obvious correction in overseas emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America and Middle East Africa in the future, and there may still be significant fluctuations in bond and foreign exchange markets related to many overseas emerging markets. As the Hong Kong stock market has undergone a significant adjustment last year, and the valuation and price risks have been significantly released, at this stage, the fluctuation of peripheral markets may have a smaller impact on Hong Kong stocks than that of Southeast Asia, Latin America, Middle East Africa and other overseas emerging markets. At this stage, among the main broad-based indexes of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng China enterprise index and hang seng index are expected to have good toughness and low volatility. Even if Hang Seng technology is affected by objective factors, it is expected that it will be difficult to have the same reduction space as last year. The valuation of Hang Seng H-share financial industry is low, and PE and Pb are 5.08 and 0.52 respectively at this stage; The Hong Kong stock market bank index PE and Pb were 5.33 and 0.5 respectively; The insurance indexes PE and Pb are 9.41 and 1.08 respectively; Considering the low valuation, it is expected that Hang Seng's H-share financial industry, banking and insurance will still have some opportunities to rise in the medium term. Considering that the world is in an economic cycle with high inflation, it is expected that Hang Seng's essential consumer industry may still be resilient in the medium term. Considering the current capital construction cycle, there may be some room for rise in the medium-term of construction projects.
US stock market performance in one week: this week, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq index rose 0.82% and 1.08% respectively, and the Dow Jones industrial index fell 0.06%.
Hong Kong stock market performance in one week: Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese enterprises index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng technology index all fell this week, with declines of 6.41%, 3.92%, 6.4% and 6.7% respectively.
Important overseas economic data: in January 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the euro area was 5.1%, higher than the previous value of 5%.
Risk tip: the Fed's monetary policy exceeded expectations; Economic growth is less than expected; The intensification of global geopolitical risks; Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; Global black swan event.
