Strategic view in March:
The rebound may end as early as early March. The two sessions in March are very important landmark events. Before that, the policy is relatively friendly, and the steady growth policy can have more expectations, expectations and logic to dominate the market. After the two sessions, fundamental data will be more important. Therefore, before and after the two sessions in early March, it will be the first time point when the rebound may end. Of course, the more important verification is to wait for the quarterly report and industry high-frequency data from mid to late March to April. If the performance trend goes down, the trend of the index will be a bear market. If the performance trend continues to improve, the index will return to a bull market. Our judgment is: strategically, 2022 will be a compressed version of 20182019, with the first half similar to 2018 and the second half similar to 2019. The rebound after the Spring Festival is tactical, and the main catalyst is “steady growth policy promotion + performance window period + oversold rebound”.
In terms of industry configuration, the market is currently in the process of tactical rebound from February to March. The growth of oversold in the early stage and the cyclical sector with good short-term performance may have performance. If strategic allocation is considered, we suggest that the value of over allocation in the first half of the year and the growth of over allocation in the second half of the year. Specific allocation directions: (1) in the middle and later stages of economic downturn, financial, real estate, construction and other sectors can advance and retreat, and the comparative advantage brought by the steady growth policy can generally last for half a year, and can continue to exceed the allocation until Q2 in 2022; (2) The supply and demand cycle of hotel, aviation, military industry and other industries is independent, and it can be paid attention to all year in 2022. The performance of hotels and airlines is in line with expectations. Due to the problems of market style and performance forecast, the military industry has made a large adjustment, but it does not change the big logic. It is still recommended to pay attention to it; (3) The growth sector has a large decline in the early stage, and there is the possibility of oversold rebound. It is suggested to pay attention to computers and media.
In March, the “top ten gold stocks” of Cinda securities were: CNOOC (petrochemical), Yankuang energy (energy), Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) (chemical industry), Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) (Dianxin), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (metal & new materials), Jinke services (real estate), Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) (machinery), Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) .(food), Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) (Communication), Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) (Electronics).
Risk factors: the decline of real estate exceeded expectations, the market fluctuated violently, and the black swan incident of individual stocks.
