Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) points out that the recent market index is a continuous cross near 2880, the 20 day moving average is near 2850, and the 60 day line and 120 day line are near 2900 and 2980 respectively; At the same time, Friday and Monday are often small time windows for trading changes. considering the recent contraction of trading volume and the lack of sustainability after the financing disk is too excited, if there is no significant benefit, such as the catalysis of new information on trade war or China's monetary policy, according to the logic of shock gradual repair, the general index will return to the 20 day moving average (currently at 2850 points) once in a short time; At the same time, the self-help characteristics of field memory funds are also obvious. Some small and medium-sized stocks that have fallen for 3-4 consecutive months and adjusted by more than 50% have shown signs of self-help of oversold rebound. For example, tengbang international and Guangzhou Jinyi Media Corporation(002905) that rose on Thursday are all attributes that were active at the beginning of the year, but then fell sharply and recently retaliated oversold rebound.
Therefore, after the index continues to cross, the short-term upper gear is between the 60 day moving average and the 120 day moving average (2900-2980 points), and the lower gear is at or slightly below the 20 day moving average (around 2850 points); considering the overnight adjustment of the European market and the shock of U.S. stocks, the lack of upward momentum in the short-term global market, and the strong expectation of funds seizing the time to produce self-help under the logic of policy upward, the market form is not impatient and moderately cautious with reference to the shock repair, rebound, decline and rise in the second half of 2013.
In terms of operation ideas, the structure is the main and the wheel operation is the main; Heavyweights do not chase to prevent the index from stepping back on the 20 day moving average or slightly below; There is a moderate layout of policy driven oversold stocks and the opportunity to fight the self rescue oversold rebound of relevant stocks. That is, in terms of individual stocks, in addition to the blue chip stocks based on the performance and valuation of the interim report, they can make some layout for the individual stocks in the old hot plate with active performance at the beginning of the year, such as fuel cell, industrial marijuana and Beidou navigation, but more adjustments have been made since the second quarter, which may lead to oversold rebound and self rescue of funds; In addition, there are opportunities for continuous rotation of independent innovation themes expected such as the list of unreliable entities; Prevent the local risks of overvalued stocks in the centralized disclosure stage of China Daily.
(Securities Times)
