Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) : the strong is always strong
The time and scope of China's policy acceleration are expected to be advanced and increased.
The measures to strengthen the policy are mainly fiscal policy and supplemented by monetary policy. The industrial policy focuses on manufacturing and optional consumption, and the employment policy is the foundation. The fiscal policy considers adding the amount of special bonds, and the incremental part considers the old reform, cold chain logistics, urban parking lots and other related fields, or using the amount corresponding to the difference between the limit of special bonds and the balance. The issuance scale of special bonds this year is likely to exceed 2.15 trillion. In addition, the reduction of capital ratio of infrastructure projects, special national debt and long-term construction national debt are all in the policy toolbox. After the implementation of the LPR reform of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve has a great probability to cut interest rates in September, the MLF interest rate is expected to be lowered, and the targeted RRR reduction is still used as a standing tool. The industrial policy focuses on the manufacturing industry and gives support to finance, taxation, finance and other aspects. Policies in the fields of optional consumption such as automobiles and household appliances should be coordinated to start the rural market. At present, the employment policies mainly focus on tax reduction, job stabilization subsidies, 100 billion vocational skills improvement actions, and 1 million more students in higher vocational colleges.
The short-term risk appetite has been frustrated, the structural market of medium layout has been adjusted, the allocation of science and technology and group consumption continue to be strengthened, and the strong will remain strong. After the short-term escalation of external factors, risk appetite was frustrated again. In the medium term, the key to the continuation of the structural market lies in the clear policy signal and the expectation of economic stabilization. Specifically, it needs the continuous deduction of three factors: the first is the continuous strengthening of policies, the second is whether the reform and opening-up measures can be continuously released, and the third is the signal of easing of external factors. The additional allocation of technology and group consumption will still be strengthened. From the recently announced interim report results, the performance of the leaders in various sub sectors is good. The reasons for the additional allocation of technology lie in three aspects: first, the continuous decline of fund positions, second, the continuous comparative advantage of performance, and third, the initial catalyst for the sub sectors. The logic of consumer spending has not yet been disrupted. From the historical consumption, there are three kinds of situations that will lead to disintegration, namely, the elimination of economic uncertainty, the concentration of Baotuan varieties below expectations or the impact of policies and valuation bubbles. At present, none of the three cases has emerged.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : 5g mobile phone development is expected to exceed expectations
In the first half of the year, the cumulative revenue of the telecommunications industry declined, the growth rate of mobile traffic revenue slowed down, and it is about to enter an inflection point.
With the rise of Dou and the decline of ARPU, the pipeline operation is facing difficulties, which forces the telecom industry to deepen reform. In the first half of the year, the cumulative traffic of mobile Internet reached 55.4 billion GB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 107.3%; In June, the Dou reached 7.84gb, down to 85%. The flow growth rate runs at a high level, but the growth rate enters the downward range. With the popularity of unlimited traffic packages and the pressure of continuous fee reduction, income is facing difficulties, and the pressure of investment and construction is still increasing rapidly. At the beginning of 5g, new expectations emerged for deepening the reform of the telecommunications industry and breaking through the dilemma of pipelining. Radio, television and ICP enterprises are expected to jointly participate in network construction and develop content-oriented innovative services. The reform of telecom industry in 5g stage is expected to remain high.
5g mobile phones will follow the network scale and are expected to grow more than expected next year. The Ministry of industry and information technology said that it would stop authenticating mobile phones that only support nsa5g from next year, aiming to guide terminals to support SA as soon as possible and support local equipment manufacturers in opening up overseas markets. Huawei's latest 5g mobile phone has been introduced to the market, the price is lower than previously expected, and has been ahead of other manufacturers for nearly a year. However, the scale of 5g network is still insufficient, and the medium and low-end models are blank. It is expected that the intention of large-scale replacement will still be realized next year. It is estimated that the expected inflection point of mobile phone shipment will be ushered in at the end of this year and early next year. With the continuous price optimization starting in the middle of next year, there will be 5g mobile phones with a price of 2000 yuan, and the overall penetration rate will be significantly improved.
It is recommended to focus on following the 5g expenditure cycle upward, mobile phones and IOT terminals, cloud computing IAAs suppliers, RF front-end self-control, network side RF antenna and other related stocks.
Changes in external factors may bring short-term disturbance to the stock market, but considering the rebound of A-Shares in early August, there are not too many optimistic expectations for external factors, so the impact will not be great, and the impact on A-Shares is expected to be within the week. The medium and long-term trend of the market still depends on China's own economic cycle, reform trend and industrial structure. It is considered that the long-term trend of A-Shares is bottoming out and improving, and the strategic position does not need to be adjusted too much.
China's upward force is gradually accumulating. China's monetary and fiscal policies may be the first to exceed expectations in the next quarter. In view of the strong resilience of China's economy since 2018, the decline of policy interest rates is slow. With the decline of long-term interest rate, the probability of short-term policy interest rate will follow, which will be the first and earliest possible force for the long-term trend of the stock market.
The other two forces may also be seen within the year and need to be observed in the short term. First, the negative impact of the economic downturn on the prosperity of various industries has lasted for one and a half years, resulting in the decline of the prosperity of a large number of industries. Due to the existence of cyclical forces, the self clearing process of many industries has come to an end. In the next six months to one year, more and more industries will gradually see upward boom inflection points. Second, financial policies continue to support the stock market, the market atmosphere has improved significantly compared with 2018, and the micro environment of the stock market is changing upward, which may be the first time since 2015.
In terms of plate allocation, it is recommended that investors actively change their allocation ideas. From 2017 to 2018, the core idea of plate allocation is to be stable, not to pursue performance exceeding expectations, as long as it can maintain stability. However, in the next six months to one year, it is recommended that investors actively layout the plates with possible inflection points in fundamentals, and the winning rate may be very high. It is recommended to focus on technology and optional consumption, and even focus on the cyclical plates at the end of the year.
(China Securities Journal)
