Affected by news factors, US stocks fell sharply by more than 620 points last Friday, causing concerns of some A-share investors.
According to the statistics of Shanghai Securities News, in the past year, the Dow fell more than 500 points in a single day 14 times. On the next trading day after the first 13 sharp falls in US stocks, A-Shares fell more than US stocks only once, fell more than 1% twice, and even rose without falling six times.
Different from the bad news of US stocks, A-Shares have ushered in a lot of good news recently. On August 25, relevant persons in charge of the CSRC held a meeting to discuss and refine the overall plan for capital market reform. At present, the plan for deepening the reform of the capital market has basically taken shape. In the early morning of August 24 Beijing time, FTSE Russell announced to increase the inclusion factor of A-Shares from 5% to 15%. Further back, on August 23, the relevant rules of the registration system of M & A and reorganization of the science and innovation board and the relevant rules of domestic spin off and listing of A-Shares were released one after another.
At the time of the sharp decline of US stocks, A-Shares are vigorously deepening reform and opening up. It is believed that after the short-term shock, A-Shares will be more and more energetic and resilient.
A-Shares fell only once the next day, surpassing the Dow
This weekend, investors focus on the U.S. stock market: the flash collapse of U.S. stocks! The Dow plunged more than 620 points, the third time since August, and the 14th time in nearly a year that the Dow fell more than 500 points (down more than 2%). According to statistics, after the sharp falls of US stocks in the past 13 times, the Shanghai index fell seven times in the next trading day, but the decline was basically less than that of the Dow, with an average decline of 0.48%.
The most recent time was on August 14, when the Dow released 800 points, but on August 15, A-Shares turned red strongly. The biggest increase in A-Shares was on January 4 this year. After the Dow plunged 660 points on January 3, the Shanghai stock index opened low and rose strongly, rising by more than 2%, starting the rebound in the first quarter.
In the past year, affected by the same factor, the linkage between A-Shares and US stocks has been enhanced. However, it can be seen from the above data that due to the differences between the overall trend and average valuation of US stocks and a shares, A-Shares are more resistant to decline than US stocks under the same bad conditions, especially when A-Shares have taken the lead in responding.
long term inflow of foreign capital + acceleration of market reform
An intuitive embodiment of the value of A-share allocation is that the long-term inflow trend of foreign capital remains unchanged.
In the next month, the three international index giants will simultaneously improve the inclusion factor of a shares: on August 27, MSCI raised the inclusion factor of Chinese market A-Shares from 10% to 15%, which came into effect; On September 23, FTSE Russell raised the inclusion factor of China's A-Shares from 5% to 15%, which came into effect; On the same day, the S & P Dow Jones index will be included in China's A-Shares at one time with a 25% Inclusion factor.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that MSCI and FTSE Russell are about to expand the capacity of a shares, and northbound funds are expected to enter the market before and after the index is included in the effective date.
In addition, last Friday, the regulatory authorities issued the draft for comments on the pilot M & a registration system of the science and innovation board and the draft for comments on the pilot domestic listing of subsidiaries of listed companies. Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) believes that the introduction of the restructuring policy shows that the institutional framework of the registration system has been accelerated. The CSRC plans to promote the spin off of listed companies and the listing of subsidiaries, which confirms the idea of strengthening direct financing and allowing the market to play a greater role under the "financial supply side reform". It is expected that the market atmosphere will remain loose before the National Day holiday, which will help the A-share market to improve.
the market will continue to tamp the bottom in the short term
How will the A-share market perform this week?
Xun Yugen of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the external disturbance factors upgrade or affect the short-term sentiment of the market, but the medium-term trend of the market is determined by the fundamentals, and the judgment that "the adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index has entered the late stage since 3288" remains unchanged. The short-term market will continue to consolidate the bottom. At present, it is still the layout period for preparing for the second wave of bull market rise. In the medium term, the market structure is expected to change gradually, and the technology stocks and brokerage stocks with steeper profit recovery will be more flexible in the future.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) said that the time and range of China's policy strengthening are expected to be advanced and increased. The measures to strengthen the policy are mainly fiscal policy, supplemented by monetary policy, industrial policy focuses on manufacturing and optional consumption, and employment policy. Short term risk appetite will be frustrated. It is suggested to layout the structural market in the adjustment; The market style of adding technology stocks and group consumer stocks will continue to be strengthened, and the leading companies will be strong.
BOCI believes that there is a strong repair power in the short-term valuation of the market. MSCI capacity expansion brings phased incremental funds; Under the new LPR regulations, it is possible to reduce the open market interest rate in the future. At present, the market risk appetite is at a historically low level. With the gradual weakening of the marginal impact of external shocks, the gradual release of the effect of China's reform policies will help to improve the risk appetite level of the equity market and drive the valuation upward.
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(Shanghai Securities News)
