Where will A-Shares go in September?
After the turmoil in August, A-Shares have tenaciously stood up, not as weak as last year. Matters such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September will be implemented one by one. Where the market will go in September is of concern.
In August, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes rose and fell. The Shanghai index fell 1.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.42%, and the gem index rose 2.58%.
Let’s see how the top ten securities companies look at the market. According to the strategy of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , September is a four fold confirmation period of, global easing, Chinese policies and corporate profits. After the four factors are successively implemented, late September will be the starting point for accelerating the admission of incremental allocation funds, and the market officially began to break through upward.
According to the strategy of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , the adjustment of Shanghai Composite Index has entered the final stage since 3288 points. The short-term repeated consolidation is ready for the second wave of bull market rise, the medium-term technology and securities companies are better, and the core assets are the basic allocation.
top ten securities companies look into the future
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : four major concerns are confirmed one by one, and we are waiting for a breakthrough in September
September is a four fold confirmation period for, global easing, Chinese policies and corporate profits. It is expected that there will be clear results since the G20. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will collectively cut interest rates in September. China will release a clearer policy signal to stabilize the economy, and the growth rate of corporate profits will also form a bottom recovery expectation. After the four factors are successively implemented, late September will be the starting point for accelerating the admission of incremental allocation funds, and the market officially began to break through upward. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to take financial consumption as the bottom position and focus on undervalued varieties.
Since July, the A-share market has shown the trend of stock game. The main factors restricting the allocation of incremental funds are, global easing, Chinese policies and corporate profits. After these four factors are confirmed one after another, late September is the starting point for accelerating the admission of incremental allocation funds, and the market is expected to officially start to break through. Different from the stock of high-risk preference funds, it is considered that the incremental funds will still take the relatively undervalued varieties of core assets as the main direction at the initial stage of allocation, drive the market weight index to break through the encirclement upward, which is expected to slightly break through the narrow range of shocks in the early stage, and lay the groundwork for the further upward breakthrough of the market from October to November.
At the initial stage of allocation, the main direction of incremental funds will be the relatively undervalued value of core assets. It is still recommended to take financial consumption as the bottom position. In September, we can focus on the relatively undervalued varieties of core assets to make reserves from October to November. It is suggested to pay attention to the banks that have gradually digested the expectation of narrowing the interest margin, the leading household appliances benefiting from the rebound in residential delivery, the leading automobile and parts and infrastructure sector with a valuation at the bottom of history, as well as the insurance and securities companies with beta attributes.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the second wave of bull market is ready to rise
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) the core conclusions are as follows:
① Looking up in the distance, the era of equity investment and financing in China has opened, and the asset allocation of institutions and residents will be biased towards a shares. From a global perspective, A-share asset securitization rate is low and attractive.
② Compared with history, the valuation of A-Shares is low, and the advantages of risk premium rate and stock debt ratio are obvious. Corporate profits are catching up with the bottom. It is expected that the net profit of A-Shares will bottom in the third quarter and roe will bottom in the fourth quarter.
③ The adjustment of Shanghai Composite Index has entered the final stage since 3288 points. The short-term repeated consolidation is ready for the second wave of bull market rise, the medium-term technology and securities companies are better, and the core assets are the basic allocation.
According to the strategy of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , the market has fluctuated slightly in the recent week. Some investors believe that the short-term market seems to have little room up and down. Our view is that the short-term market will be disturbed by events and emotions, but the trend should look up in the distance. From the perspective of asset allocation and A-share valuation profit ratio, we still maintain an optimistic judgment in the medium term.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : the market may continue to be dominated by interval shocks
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) the strategy indicates that I, on September 6, the S & P Dow Jones index will release the list of China’s A-share adjustment included in its index system. A-Shares will be included at one time with a 25% Inclusion factor and will also take effect before the opening on September 23. It is expected to bring about US $14 billion (about RMB 100 billion) of incremental funds to the A-share market in total; Secondly, the overall valuation is low and in the bottom area; Daqing, the 70th anniversary of the founding of the people’s Republic of China, is coming, and there are stability maintenance expectations in the market. The above factors may have a certain support for the market in September.
Based on the above factors, the market may continue to be dominated by range shocks in September, and the upper and lower space may be relatively limited. Taking the Shanghai Composite Index as an example, it is more likely to remain in the range of 2750-3000 in September. Bargain hunting focuses on the structural opportunities of leading stocks with excellent performance in the policy benefiting sectors such as science and technology, food and beverage, medicine, household appliances and big finance.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) : the market will still have twists and turns
The Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) strategy indicates that the short-term rebound is due to the improvement of risk appetite, and a sustainable rebound still needs to wait.
In September, the market has the opportunity of staged rebound. The core driving force lies in the phased change of risk preference, which stems from two points: first, the recent increase of reform and opening-up measures, such as the socialist leading zone in Shenzhen, Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) five “freedoms” in the free trade zone, and the approval of new free trade zones in 6 provinces; The second is the increase of the impact of the counter cycle, the deterioration of economic data in July and August, the activation of LPR, 20 measures to boost consumption and possible stable manufacturing investment. There is no obvious change in economic growth and liquidity, which determines that the periodic rebound market presents structural characteristics, the rebound process will be twists and turns, and the structural opportunities are still leading in consumption and science and technology.
The subsequent sustainable rebound stems from the marginal changes in economic growth and liquidity. On the one hand, the current economic cycle is still in the downward stage, and the inventory cycle is in the de inventory state. In the follow-up, we will pay close attention to the bottom of the U.S. economy; On the other hand, the change of liquidity depends on the supply of interest rate policy and the change of credit cycle. Closely track the adjustment of MLF interest rate and the change of credit growth. On the whole, there is an opportunity for the market to rebound in September, but the space is relatively limited, showing twists and turns in structural opportunities. The industry configuration focuses on consumption and technology, and is over equipped with three industries such as automobile, medicine and consumer electronics.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : during the bottom configuration period, you can add cars and small and medium-sized innovation
The Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) strategy indicates that it is currently in the bottom configuration period and can add positions in every major adjustment. At present, the actual growth rate implied by the valuation is expected to be slightly lower than 6%, and the market is once again in the bottom allocation period. Although the trend of the big game is still impacting the market, the marginal effect is decreasing, so there is no need to worry too much about foreign invasion. At the same time, the escalation of the big game may lead to the return of the policy economic cycle to the fourth stage of “weak data and loose policy”, so as to provide kinetic energy for the rise of the market. At the same time, the higher than expected performance of industrial profits in July may be the lagging impact of the expansion of total assets of commercial banks in the early stage, which will help to realize the weak recovery after the second economic bottom in the third quarter.
1) It is recommended to continue to add cars. It is expected that under the base effect, the industry sales growth trend is expected to improve significantly in September, and the industry may start the passive destocking process after September.
2) Continue to allocate more small and medium-sized enterprises. Since it was proposed in mid and late June that small and medium-sized enterprises were dominant in the second half of the year, the market style has shown signs of tilting towards small and medium-sized enterprises. It is suggested to focus on 5g industrial chain, semiconductor, network security, etc. which are important in import substitution. In addition, under the background of promoting the financial supply side reform, it is suggested to pay more attention to financial technology stocks.
3) Maintain the allocation of necessary consumer goods, and it is still recommended to hold them as bottom positions; Optimistic about the prosperity direction of pharmaceutical cro and innovative drugs with both consumption and scientific and technological attributes. 4) Military industry, cycle or usher in the theme window period. “11” National Day is coming, benefiting from the planned merger of North-South ships and the military parade on the 70th anniversary of national day; The market has increasingly strong expectations of production restriction before the national day, and cyclical stocks may have game opportunities.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the market in September was mainly stable
According to the Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) strategy, the biggest change at the macro level in August was the RMB exchange rate. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was lowered to 7.09 from 6.89 at the end of July, with an adjustment range of nearly 3%. There are two implications behind it. On the one hand, the slowdown of economic growth superimposed trade problems, and the depreciation of the exchange rate helps to hedge the economic pressure caused by the rise. On the other hand, The policy side began to choose tools such as encouraging consumption to hedge the pressure of economic slowdown, which reflects the government’s determination to get rid of the dependence on real estate. Similar to exchange rate hedging, the future policy thinking may still be mainly hedging.
From the perspective of several scenarios, except for the steep downward trend of economic data and the obvious relaxation of monetary policy, the disturbance of macro data is difficult to form a large-scale impact on the market. The main factors affecting the market trend in the short term are risk appetite and the market itself, such as the fluctuation of market sentiment caused by the changes of external factors such as China US talks and Britain’s brexit, And the adjustment demand after the excessive distortion of the market transaction structure.
On the whole, the current macro situation belongs to the situation of synchronous slowdown of the global economy and gradual easing of policies. The market has full expectations for fundamentals. It is difficult for the market to rise or fall at a large level before there are no new unexpected factors. It is expected that the market will be stable in September. In terms of configuration ideas in September, it is suggested to pay attention to the performance improvement of China Daily (medicine and computer), industry prosperity recovery (Electronics and automobile) and the 70th anniversary of the National Day (military industry and securities companies).
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : focus on structural market and intensive cultivation
Xingzheng strategy said that the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by about 7% from 2733 points on August 6. At the current time point, many investors have great differences on the follow-up trend of the market. Looking forward to September, the market will focus on grasping the structural market and intensive cultivation.
1) With Daqing approaching 70 years ago, there is a window for improving risk appetite. 2) All a and all a non-financial performance from a single quarter and cumulative point of view, the growth rate in 2019q2 was lower than that in the first quarter, but better than that in 2018q4. Starting from the performance, grasp the profit improvement segments. 3) The market expects that China and the United States will achieve phased results in September and the market-oriented interest rate will decline in September after LPR reform. If such expectations cannot be fulfilled, the market will be under pressure. 4) We mentioned earlier that the deepening of financial supply side reform in the “three mountains” will periodically bring liquidity / credit tightening pressure to the market, and then restrict the market in September. If such “bad” news does not appear and is expected to be fulfilled as scheduled, the index is expected to reach a new level.
Overall, fundamentals, risk appetite and liquidity are good or bad. They compete and race with each other in September. The periodic “good” news is ahead. The market can be optimistic and make more offensive elastic varieties. When periodic “bad” news suppresses market sentiment, appropriately reduce positions. If, as mentioned above, China and the United States achieve results in stages, and the LPR reform promotes the interest rate to decline as scheduled, these positive factors are superimposed, and it is possible for the index to rise to a new level. Of course, if the expected events of investors do not come true, the “three mountains” also periodically superimpose bad news, and the market risk aversion may be stronger.
Specific to the opportunity level, short-term, both offensive and defensive. “Attack” combined with the performance of the interim report, superimposed with the upcoming appearance of new mobile phones of Huawei and apple, the emerging growth direction represented by Huawei mobile phone chain, 5g and military industry is expected to continue the previous performance. “Shou” is a defensive variety represented by high dividends of public utilities and gold.
BOCI Securities: focus on structural opportunities in the downward expectation of interest rate
BOC International Securities said it was concerned about the market structural opportunities under the downward expectation of interest rates and the improvement of risk appetite. For the prediction of market direction, maintain the early view. In the medium term, the market profit and valuation are under pressure, and it is difficult to have trend opportunities. In the short term, the downward expectation of risk-free interest rate combined with the improvement of risk appetite is expected to drive the market to rebound.
The decline of risk-free interest rate brought by monetary easing does not necessarily lead to the rise of market risk appetite. At present, the market risk appetite has been at a low level, and there are certain expectations for potential uncertain events such as. In the short term, the release of reform policies is more likely to improve the market risk appetite, and the realization of the downward expectation of risk-free interest rate in the future is expected to further open a rebound window.
In terms of industry configuration, long gold copper ratio is still the preferred strategy we recommend. The defense strategy of undervalued value and high dividend in the downward profit cycle is still the choice to obtain stable income, and grasp the deterministic opportunity brought by the performance of the interim report exceeding expectations. In the stage of rising short-term risk appetite, we can pay attention to the structural opportunities in the downward expectation of interest rates and the deterministic opportunities of the growth sector represented by 5g industrial chain.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : still need patience
The China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) strategy indicates that the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the expectation of taking multiple measures to reform and stabilize growth is increasing; The meso economy is still divided, and the consumption toughness and some high-end manufacturing have improved; Liquidity remained moderately loose, and the valuation of the main broad-based indexes of A-Shares remained low; Focus on the two main lines of consumption and science and technology, make rational use of configuration tactics, and wait for the valuation switching window.
Looking forward to the future, the strength of policy, economic toughness, low valuation and reform expectations are still the reasons for our optimism about the medium and long-term market. The two main lines of “big consumption”, which represents the most important engine of economic growth, and “scientific and technological innovation”, which represents the new driving force of economic growth, have emerged. Strategically, we are still optimistic for a long time. However, considering that the overall market has not yet got rid of the range shock pattern, investors need to be patient and think against the trend.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : the market in September was relatively optimistic
The Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) strategy said that after repeatedly bottoming A-Shares at the end of August, the A-share market was relatively optimistic in September. Five main points support our judgment: 1) China and the United States are within market expectations to a certain extent; 2) Approaching the “70th anniversary”, the characteristics of maintaining stability of A-share market will appear again, and China’s policy is expected to be warm as a whole; 3) In September, A-Shares were in a more loose monetary environment, which does not rule out the Central Bank of China cutting the MLF operating interest rate in a timely manner; 4) After the disclosure of A-share interim report, A-share was in a short vacuum period of performance in September; 5) “FTSE Russell, Dow Jones S & P A shares” entered an intensive period. Therefore, at the current time point, we predict that the A-share momentum adjustment has been relatively sufficient, and the golden September market will gradually unfold.
In terms of industry allocation, from the latest chip distribution of institutions, institutions are too crowded in the allocation of “traditional consumption”, and institutional allocation has the internal demand of moderate diffusion to growth. From this perspective, the technology growth sector was relatively dominant in stock price performance in September. While we suggest that investors pay attention to the science and technology growth sector (especially 5g direction), relevant stocks still need to “eliminate the false and preserve the true”.
(China Fund News)
