The A-share market continued to strengthen this week. On September 5, the Shanghai composite index broke through 3000 points, with an increase of 3.45% this week, the best week since July.
However, the Shanghai Composite Index failed to successfully stand at the 3000 point integer level on September 5. Can the rising market be smooth?
Surging journalists collected the views of 12 funds for the first time. On the whole, the general RRR reduction signal released by the executive meeting of the State Council and the easing of overseas negative factors are regarded as an important driver of the market's strength again, and remain optimistic about the short-term market trend.
Yang Yaquan, a researcher of Nord fund, believes that the market risk appetite has increased rapidly and remains optimistic in the future due to the impact of steady growth and the expectation of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates.
Jiang Jialiang, manager of AXA Puyin new economic structure fund, believes that the current A-share market is at the bottom of historical valuation, and the marginal improvement of internal and external environment is a good opportunity for the current layout value.
Cathay Pacific Fund is also optimistic about the short-term A-share market. Industries that are relatively optimistic include securities companies with loose liquidity, 5g and new energy sectors (photovoltaic and wind power) with rising prosperity and are expected to continue, as well as cars that are expected to hit the bottom and rebound in the industry.
However, for the medium and long-term market performance, Cathay Pacific Fund believes that it is worth watching. After all, the current trend of economic decline has not been completely improved. The duration of this round of market also depends on the strength of this round of rebound.
here are the detailed views of 12 funds:
I. Yang Yaquan, researcher of Nord Fund: risk appetite continues to improve and remains optimistic in the future
Looking forward to the future, from the perspective of market risk appetite. The central financial and Economic Commission stressed that China's policies, such as independent control and industrial base reconstruction, the central bank's formulation of LPR application assessment requirements, accelerating the implementation of measures to reduce the level of real interest rate, and timely using policy tools such as general reserve requirement reduction and targeted reserve requirement reduction, are conducive to continuously improving market risk appetite.
From a fundamental point of view. In the whole year of 2018, the first quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2019, the cumulative growth rate of all A-Shares attributable to shareholders of the parent company was - 1.9%, 9.4% and 6.5% respectively, showing a bottoming trend as a whole. Since the beginning of this year, the financial data has bottomed out and rebounded. In history, the recovery of corporate profits has lagged behind the easing of policies for 2-3 quarters. Before the end of 2019, corporate profits, especially the prosperity of emerging industries in line with the direction of industrial development, are expected to rebound.
At the current time point, we are relatively optimistic about the science and technology industry with high prosperity, strong performance growth, reasonable valuation and no obvious institutional agglomeration.
Second, Ping An Fund: the rise of the market depends more on the main capital force
At the executive meeting of the State Council held on September 4, it was mentioned that the work of "six stabilities" should be put in a more prominent position, and policy tools such as universal RRR reduction and targeted RRR reduction should be used in time to use more funds for Inclusive Finance. The "general RRR reduction" was first mentioned in the recent statement, and the last general RRR reduction was in January this year.
The expectation of RRR reduction is conducive to the expectation of capital easing. The reference to "general RRR reduction" means that the deposit reserve ratio will be comprehensively reduced at any time. At the same time, combined with the "improvement of assessment and incentive mechanism" of financial institutions, it will further promote credit expansion and release liquidity to the market, which will be conducive to loose capital expectations.
For the stock market, the independence and resilience of the A-share market have become more and more obvious recently. The rise of the market depends more on the strength of the main funds. Since September, northbound capital has become the main driving force of this round of market. The stock index returned to 3000 points, which significantly boosted market sentiment. In the long run, the valuation of A-Shares is attractive and the risk premium is at a favorable level, providing a good opportunity for strategic allocation. In the future, foreign capital allocation funds such as MSCI, FTSE Russell and S & P will continue to flow in, further boosting market sentiment.
In terms of sectors, the brokerage sector and 5g sector led the rise in early trading today. At the same time, there is a certain demand for make-up in traditional cyclical industries, which plays a positive role in stabilizing the index. With the change of economic development mode, the growth sector with stable and good performance or representing scientific and technological innovation is expected to continue to dominate the market. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to high-end manufacturing and other science and technology sectors.
III. South Fund: steady growth boosts market sentiment and takes profit improvement as the main investment line
Recently, the market sentiment has warmed up, and the inflow of funds from northbound has accelerated significantly last week. Following the net inflow of more than 10 billion yuan in the first two weeks, the net inflow of funds from northbound reached 10.3 billion yuan in the first three trading days of this week. In September, A-Shares will usher in an intensive period of international index inclusion and expansion, and northbound funds are expected to continue to maintain a net inflow. Market sentiment continued to maintain a high level. In the first three trading days of this week, the net purchase of leveraged funds was RMB 10.774 billion, and the proportion of financing purchase in the turnover of A-Shares rebounded to 9.35%.
The executive meeting of the State Council held on September 4 stressed that we should accelerate the implementation of measures to reduce the level of real interest rates and timely use policy tools such as general and targeted RRR reduction. This further enhanced the market's expectations for the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates. The executive meeting of the State Council decided on measures to speed up the issuance and use of special bonds of local governments, drive effective investment, support weaknesses and expand domestic demand. This boosted the market's expectations for increasing infrastructure. At the meeting of the financial stability and Development Committee of the State Council held on August 31, it was clearly proposed to strengthen the counter cyclical regulation of macroeconomic policies and implement active fiscal policies. From the recent policy statement, the policy has increased the strength of steady growth, which helps to boost market sentiment. In addition, under the background of great downward pressure on China's economy and rising external uncertainty, the promotion of reform has been significantly accelerated, and major policies such as the marketization of LPR interest rate, the construction of a leading demonstration zone of socialism with Chinese characteristics in Shenzhen, the 20 new policies of the State Council to promote consumption, the establishment of six new free trade zones, deepening the reform of capital market system and the implementation of industrial infrastructure reconstruction have been intensively introduced.
At present, the profits of A-share listed companies are still bottoming out, but structurally, the profits of some industries such as technology stocks have improved. Although the changes in the external environment still partially affect the risk appetite of the capital market, the marginal impact is weakening.
At present, the valuation of A-Shares is at a relatively low level in history, especially after the preliminary adjustment, the cost performance of A-Shares has been further improved. Investors can take profits as the main investment line, focusing on industries where the boom continues to rise and is about to bottom out.
IV. AXA Puyin Fund: marginal improvement of internal and external environment is a good opportunity for current layout value
Jiang Jialiang, fund manager of AXA Puyin new economic structure, believes that the current A-share market is at the bottom of historical valuation, and the marginal improvement of internal and external environment is a good opportunity for the current layout value. In the future, we will focus on the changes of market structure, and will continue to look for stocks and industries with high performance certainty, upward prosperity and matching growth and valuation, such as consumption, medicine, 5g concept Investment opportunities in consumer electronics, agriculture, photovoltaic and other industries.
Fifth, Cathay Pacific Fund: the short-term A-share market is relatively optimistic and optimistic about securities companies, 5g and other industries
We are relatively optimistic about the short-term A-share market. The reasons are as follows.
1. The overall valuation is relatively low. The all a equity risk premium is at the 60% quantile since 2010, and the stock bond price ratio measured by the dividend yield of CSI 300 / 10-year Treasury bond is at the 85% quantile since 2010, reflecting that the stock asset price ratio is at a high position and the market has entered the bottom area.
2. In terms of liquidity, the executive meeting of the State Council held on August 16 stressed "deploying and using market-oriented reform methods to significantly reduce the level of real interest rates", and the meeting of the financial stability and Development Committee of the State Council held on August 31 stressed "making great efforts to dredge the transmission of monetary policy", which further explained that the policy intention was to significantly reduce loan interest rates, It is expected that monetary policy will be further coordinated.
3. In terms of policies, the support of capital market policies is strong. On August 31, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held its seventh meeting, which reflected the increasing support of policies, including further deepening the reform of the capital market, adhering to the direction of marketization, legalization and internationalization, seeking progress while maintaining stability, taking the reform of the science and innovation board as a breakthrough, strengthening the top-level design of the capital market and improving the basic system, Improve the quality of listed companies, solidly cultivate all kinds of institutional investors, and create good conditions for more long-term funds to continue to enter the market.
To sum up, we are optimistic about the short-term A-share market. Relatively optimistic industries include securities companies with loose liquidity, 5g and new energy sectors (photovoltaic and wind power) whose prosperity is improving and is expected to continue, and cars whose industry is expected to bottom out.
In terms of medium and long-term market performance, we think it is worth watching. After all, the current trend of economic decline has not been completely improved. The duration of this round of market also depends on the strength of this round of rebound.
VI. Boshi Fund: A-Shares may have phased performance
The reasons for the recent accelerated rebound in the A-share market are as follows: first, the pressure on economic fundamentals has been temporarily relieved, which is reflected in the increase in the proportion of better than expected interim performance of listed companies and the obvious rebound of manufacturing PMI in Caixin in August; Second, the policy environment is more powerful for the stock market. The meeting of the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held at the end of August released the signal of increasing the intensity of "counter cyclical regulation". The market expects that the central bank's open market operation interest rate may be reduced. In addition, the executive meeting of the State Council held on September 4 urged to do a good job in the "six stability" work, determined measures to accelerate the issuance and use of special bonds of local governments, and issued the new amount of special bonds next year in advance, so as to drive effective investment, support short board and expand domestic demand. This has raised the market's policy expectation for steady growth.
Looking forward to September, the fundamentals of A-Shares will temporarily enter a vacuum period. Benefiting from favorable policies and emotional boost, A-Shares may have phased performance. Investors may be more active than in the early stage and layout sectors with rising risk appetite, such as the science and technology theme of rising finance and prosperity.
VII. Haifutong Fund: the downward trend of risk-free interest rate brings repair opportunities and is optimistic about the structural market
The medium-term logic of the market will return to China's economic and policy direction. Therefore, under the current policy mix, although the economic expectation has eased, it is difficult to have an optimistic expectation similar to the "inflection point of comprehensive recovery" in the first quarter of this year.
Based on the above judgment, we believe that the repair opportunities brought by the decline of risk-free interest rate at the valuation end are relatively certain, which is weaker than that in the first quarter. There is uncertainty in risk appetite, but the market environment is improving and we are optimistic about the market structure.
Benefiting from the loose monetary environment and capital market reform, banks and securities companies may have some performance in the near future, and are optimistic about the consumer leader with stable profitability and the technology leader with continuous improvement for a long time.
VIII. Huabao Fund: phased risk landing, and A-Shares ushered in a policy warm period
For today's market performance, our specific observations and interpretations are as follows:
1. The positive news from the executive meeting of the State Council boosted the market with the signal of RRR reduction
Heavy news came from the executive meeting of the State Council held on September 4, the biggest highlight of which was the release of the RRR reduction signal. The executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that we should adhere to the implementation of prudent monetary policy and timely pre adjustment and fine-tuning, accelerate the implementation of measures to reduce the level of real interest rate, timely use policy tools such as general reserve reduction and targeted reserve reduction, use more funds for Inclusive Finance, and increase financial support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises. Today, banking stocks, brokerage stocks and industrial stocks collectively benefited higher.
2. The premier emphasized scientific and technological innovation, and the favorable investment in science and technology occurred frequently
On September 2, Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, chaired a symposium on the work of the National Science Fund for distinguished young people, pointing out that we should strengthen the leading and leading role of scientific and technological innovation in economic and social development and promote high-quality development. On September 4, Shenzhen 5g construction plan was issued, which activated investment opportunities in the science and technology sector to a certain extent. Science and technology stocks were focused on capital layout this year, with a prominent rise. Today, science and technology stocks performed strongly.
3. Phased risk landing, A-Shares ushered in a policy warm period
The performance risk of China Daily has been basically implemented, and a number of reforms in the capital market have been continuously promoted. In terms of product selection, it is suggested to find industry stocks with rising prosperity from bottom to top, such as securities companies, consumer electronics, 5g industrial chain, new energy industrial chain, etc.
IX. HSBC Jinxin Fund: policy incentives boost market confidence
Min Liangchao, chief macro and strategist of HSBC Jinxin fund, believes that today, the Shanghai composite index once broke through the 3000 point mark, and the main driving force is the boost of policy incentives to market confidence.
Specifically, on the one hand, the executive meeting of the State Council clearly mentioned in the statement of monetary policy that "we should adhere to the implementation of prudent monetary policy, timely pre adjust and fine tune, accelerate the implementation of measures to reduce the level of real interest rate, and timely use policy tools such as general reserve requirement reduction and targeted reserve requirement reduction"; On the other hand, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that according to the construction needs of local major projects, the new amount of special bonds for next year shall be issued in advance according to the regulations, so as to ensure that it can be used and effective at the beginning of next year and expand the scope of use.
First, in terms of monetary policy, the statement of the executive meeting of the State Council exceeded expectations. After the LPR reform in August, the expectation of the Chinese market for monetary policy mainly lies in following the Federal Reserve to reduce the MLF interest rate. The expectation for the RRR reduction is mainly focused on the targeted RRR reduction. The executive meeting of the State Council mentioned the "general RRR reduction", which exceeded the market expectation.
Secondly, according to the construction needs of local major projects, the new amount of special bonds for next year shall be issued in advance according to regulations, and the scope of use shall be expanded. The key areas include transportation infrastructure such as railway, rail transit and urban parking lot, energy projects such as urban and rural power grid, natural gas pipeline network and gas storage facilities, ecological and environmental protection projects such as agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, urban sewage and waste treatment, vocational education Livelihood services such as childcare, medical care and elderly care, cold chain logistics facilities, water, electricity and heat and other municipal and industrial park infrastructure. In addition, the special debt can be used as project capital, and the scope is defined as the major infrastructure areas in line with the above key investment.
The above two measures will help China's economy hedge against external risks such as the global economic recession, which is expected to increase the probability of China's economy stabilizing in the third and fourth quarters, so as to boost investor confidence and risk appetite, and promote the upward repair of market valuation. In the follow-up, we can focus on the stabilization of a series of economic data such as PMI and PPI.
10. CITIC Prudential Fund: the environment is warm and the rebound is expected to continue
1. The A-share market environment was warmer and the market continued to rebound. The executive meeting of the State Council held on September 4 stressed that we should adhere to the implementation of prudent monetary policy, timely pre adjustment and fine adjustment, accelerate the implementation of measures to reduce the level of real interest rate, and timely use policy tools such as general reserve requirement reduction and targeted reserve requirement reduction. Liquidity easing is expected to be strengthened again, and the market once rebounded and exceeded 3000 points.
2. The growth of science and technology and the short-term flexibility of securities companies are greater. The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have a high probability of cutting interest rates in September, and the loose expectations of China's RRR reduction and MLF interest rate reduction have been strengthened. The disclosure of A-share interim report has been completed. At the same time, the market environment is still in a friendly window, and the rebound of A-Shares is expected to continue. Technology growth (TMT, medicine) benefiting from loose liquidity expectations and improved risk appetite in the short term, and the early cycle sector of securities companies (banking, real estate, building materials, etc.) are more flexible.
Xi. YONGYING Fund: market driving force turns to valuation
We believe that under the background of the increased risk of weakening domestic and foreign demand and the continuous downward pressure on the economy, the executive meeting of the State Council held on September 4 proposed to accelerate the implementation of measures to reduce the level of real interest rate, and timely use policy tools such as general reserve reduction and targeted reserve reduction. According to the construction needs of local major projects, the new amount of special bonds for next year shall be issued in advance according to the regulations, so as to ensure that it can be used and effective at the beginning of next year and expand the scope of use. Both released more than expected easing signals.
At present, the overall valuation level of A-Shares is close to the bottom of 2013-2014, the profitability is also at the bottom of history, and the allocation cost performance is at a historical high; At present, the disclosure of the interim report of A-Shares is completed, which is in a short performance vacuum period, and the market driving force turns to valuation.
We continue our previous judgment and suggest investors to remain optimistic, continue to actively grasp the "red September" market, and pay close attention to China's economic situation and relevant policy trends.
12. Xingshi Investment: the performance repair of science and technology stocks is gradually unfolding
Xingshi investment believes that the recent market of science and technology stocks has just opened, and science and technology growth stocks are expected to continue to improve in the future.
1. The interest rate and reserve requirement reduction can be expected, and the benefits of growth stocks will be the most obvious.
The current RRR reduction does not restrict interest rate reduction. The possibility of interest rate reduction in the future still exists. September will be an important window for interest rate reduction.
Whether the RRR or interest rate reduction, or the policy combination of RRR + interest rate reduction appears at the same time, Xingshi investment believes that the downward trend of risk-free interest rate will be the same in the future, and science and technology growth stocks will continue to benefit.
2. The performance restoration of science and technology stocks is gradually unfolding, and a new business cycle has begun.
The profit growth rate reported in the SME board and gem has been repaired, and computers and electronics have improved. Especially with the issuance of 5g license, 5g leads the start of a new round of science and technology cycle.
With the acceleration of 5g commercial rhythm, the downstream consumer electronics field will usher in a wave of machine change. Therefore, in the future, benefiting from the accelerated construction of 5g base stations and the impact of 5g switch tide, it is expected to drive the recovery of the whole science and technology industry.
3. Risk appetite has rebounded significantly.
From the perspective of A-Shares themselves, with the continuous introduction of counter cyclical adjustment policies, A-Shares and U.S. stocks have gradually desensitized, which proves that A-Shares can get out of an independent market on the premise of external uncertainty. Especially since August, the balance of two financial institutions in Shanghai and Shenzhen has continued to rise, and the balance of two financial institutions has been close to the level in early April this year, indicating that the current market risk appetite has rebounded significantly.
4. Foreign capital will enter the market and allocate high-quality growth stocks.
Since July and August this year, there has been an obvious trend of additional allocation of growth stocks by foreign capital.
Taking northbound capital as an example, since August, among the top ten stocks of northbound capital allocation, semiconductor and other technology industries have accounted for 14.5%; The proportion from January to July this year was 2.9%.
In terms of sectors, northbound funds have significantly increased their holdings of the gem for three consecutive months.
Xingshi investment believes that with the continuous inflow of foreign capital in the future, growth stocks with performance support will benefit the most.
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(surging News)
